Zawahiri Uses ISG Report to Call for Negotiations by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In the new tape from al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri that was broadcast today by al-Jazeera, he references the Iraq Study Group report:

Zawahiri said Washington was scrambling for an exit from Iraq and Afghanistan, but was approaching the wrong parties. "Both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to find an exit from the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are still thinking with the same rash mentality and trying to negotiate with some sides to secure your exit but these sides cannot offer you an escape and your attempts will only bring more failure. You are not negotiating with the real powers in the Muslim world and you appear to be heading towards a painful round of negotiations, after which you will forced to talk to the real forces..." he said.

Zawahiri is, of course, referring to al-Qaeda as the real power that Washington will be forced to talk to. This is not the first time that al-Qaeda has suggested that the United States or other Western powers should engage in talks with them. The terrorist group's first overtures to the West came in April 2004, after the 3/11 bombings seemingly swung the Spanish election and brought to power a Socialist government that promptly withdrew its troops from Iraq. In April 2004, Osama bin Laden offered a truce to European countries that similarly withdrew their forces from Iraq. After that, al-Qaeda leaders frequently spoke of a way out of the conflict in speeches that they directed at the West. Bin Laden did this in his October 2004 video, in which he urged Westerners to "look for [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again." Zawahiri then referenced bin Laden's analysis of the conflict with the West in an August 2005 video, where he asked, "Didn't Osama bin Laden tell you that you would never dream of peace until we actually live it in Palestine and before all foreign forces withdraw from the Land of Muhammad?" A number of other Al-Qaeda public statements suggest that the West should choose a course of negotiation and appeasement, including a February 2005 Zawahiri video and a September 2005 Adam Gadahn video.

Negotiation with al-Qaeda is a terrible idea now, just as it was on all the previous occasions that the terrorist group suggested the course. What has changed is the political environment. The Waziristan Accord was a surrender to al-Qaeda and Taliban factions. The world has looked the other way as the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Courts Union rose to power in Somalia, drawing foreign fighters to the country and implementing a strict version of sharia law in the process. The Iraq Study Group frames Iran and Syria as partners for peace in Iraq that need to be engaged, despite both countries' active support for the insurgency. The op-ed pages of major newspapers reveal an increased taste for negotiation with our enemies: witness Jason Burke's call in The Observer for negotiation with the Taliban. We are increasingly in a negotiating mood. I don't expect the United States to sit down at the negotiating table with Osama bin Laden anytime soon, nor do I expect any major politicians to embrace this view in the next couple of years. Rather, the question in my mind is whether this view will gain enough legitimacy that it is seen as a real alternative, something that those of us in the counterterrorism field have to actively argue against. If the pro-negotiation view does gain legitimacy in this way, it will create further difficulties for the West.