When will Brazil's Gangs Make the Jump? by John Robb

Over the last 24 hours, gangs (see my earlier brief on "Transnational Gangs" for more) in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro unleashed a series of attacks that torched a police station and 3 buses (18 died). This incident is similar to the flare ups earlier this year in Sao Paulo that pitted the police against the PCC.

Stated reasons for these Rio attacks include the election of Sergio Cabral to the governorship of the state on a security platform and pressure from rival vigilante militias that are now in a contest with the drug gangs for control of the street and the economic (these militias charge residents and businesses for protection) power that confers:

"It's a fight for economic power... The militias exist, they are the fourth major gang in the state," (Asterio) Pereira (Rio state penitentiary chief) said (Reuters).

In sum, this is a situation where rapid urbanization and enormous profits from black globalization have put the gangs in a collision course with the state. As semi-legitimate contenders with the state, they are increasingly in need of some measure of political power (which for them is to be left in control of a patchwork urban TAZ) if they are to evolve without escalating violence. Of course, that isn't likely, given the state is going to push back and "loyalist militias" have formed to vie for control of the street (many of these militias will jump into the drug game too, given time, they are part of the same beast but from a different starting point). The inevitable result is that Brazil's urban gangs will adopt the methods of 4th generation warfare to survive and continue their growth. The only question is: how fast?

So far the process of evolution has been reasonably slow and inept. That could change quickly. It would radically shorten if target cities were forced into failure through systems disruption and the gangs expanded their financial endeavors into energy smuggling, human welfare/support, and "security" services (a carrot/stick combo that would contrast favorably with the government). Further, cross connections to other global open source insurgencies and stand alone 4th generation forces would rapidly provide the training, weapons, and methods necessary to reverse the outcomes of any engagement with state police/military forces. It will be interesting to see if they are smart enough to make this happen.