EU will Dither, and China will Move In by Thomas Barnett

ARTICLE: "Turkey's EU Bid Quietly Loses Steam: Report Card on Talks Will Be Poor as Public Support Slides and Islam-West Tensions Mount," by Philip Shishkin and Marc Champion, Wall Street Journal, 2 November 2006, p. A6.

ARTICLE: "Chinese Shippers Seek Port Access in Greece," Wall Street Journal, 2 November 2006, p. A6.

Nothing predicts Europe's growing strategic irrelevancy more than their growing navel-gazing over the perceived threat of "Eurabia," which speaks to a continent that's gotten so fat, dumb and lazy that they're fatalistically succumbing to fears of invasive species destroying their habitat. The reality is, of course, that thriving, self-aware societies can handle that influx and integrate the differences to make the whole stronger.

But apparently all talk of the "United States of Europe" is just that--talk and nothing more. The strife that comes from this will be all internal and--to be blunt--politically self-inflicted. We'll be looking at a Europe that is more like the decades running up to our own Civil War than the kind we'll need in this Long War--namely, one like the U.S. after the Civil War (which is where the New Core powers like China [if it can ever get past Taiwan] and India [if it can ever get past Kashmir] come in).

Speaking of China coming in, the EU's coming decades of navel gazing will leave its outskirts ripe for the economic taking, as China is already gearing up to do.