Intell Agencies on Iraq by Thomas Barnett

This analysis is typical intell stuff: obvious, useless, and playing into a do-nothing mind-set that here says, "Do nothing to piss off the terrorists!"

Duh! When we engage the security situation--any security situation--in the Middle East, we piss off (and create more) terrorists. We do it when we're pro-active, like in Iraq. We do it when we're passive, like our military support to Israel. And we do it when we're behind the scenes, like our intell co-op with regimes throughout the region.

So it's never been a question of whether or not we piss off terrorists (who live to be pissed off, and when there's not enough going on, they'll get jacked over a film (e.g., Van Gogh), a book (Rushdie), a speech (Benedict)--whatever).

We can either engage the region militarily to deal with its security deficits that hold off economic connectivity and keep this overwhelmingly young population from engaging the future (globalization) or we can sit back, try to firewall America (something the spooks are always up for) and wait for the next explosion--or 9/11.

The issue isn't our military involvement, which has been constant for decades now, but the everything else that we suck at: our diplomatic, economic and social engagement with the region. Criticizing our military in the region is perfectly fine, but most of that criticism (from me included) revolves around how poorly we do the everything else--not the mil stuff per se. So pretending the "war" fuels all local terrorism (and even there I say fine, because better there than here, better sooner than later, and better our professionals than our civilians) is magnificently self-flagellating (something intell is always good for) and ultimately misleading (another fine trait of intell analysis--i.e., its tragically non-strategic mindset). It just builds on the myth that the military can do all, so must try all, and when it fails, must be blamed for all.

We tend to view the world as a nail because we refuse to adequately develop our tools beyond the Pentagon's--so an overfed Leviathan and a starved SysAdmin (which I constantly note needs to be more civilian than uniform, more USG than DOD, more private-sector than public, and more rest of world than American).

And you know what? You do all that and you will piss off the terrorists even more. Our job (Big Bang) done poorly pisses them off, but our job done well (SysAdmin, Development-in-a-Box, Department of Everything Else, Shrink the Gap) will piss them off even more, and more importantly--even faster.

And yes, when we inevitably make such strides, the intell types will bemoan the resulting complexity all the more.

Always count on the intell community to advocate a strategy of limited regret, limited action, and limited results. It's what they know and believe in--ass-covering as a way of life.

You want to look and feel like scared Europe in this Long War? Then listen intently to everything the intell community peddles--and just assume we're all on our way out.

And act accordingly.