U.S. spy agencies are considering whether to rewrite a controversial 2007 intelligence report that asserted Tehran halted its efforts to build nuclear weapons in 2003, current and former U.S. intelligence officials say.
The intelligence agencies' rethink comes as pressure is mounting on Capitol Hill, and among U.S. allies, for the Obama administration to redo the 2007 assessment, after a string of recent revelations about Tehran's nuclear program.
German, French and British intelligence agencies have all disputed the conclusions of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, in recent months, according to European officials briefed on the exchanges.
Intelligence on the state of Iran's nuclear capabilities has for years been politically fraught within Washington and among U.S. allies and international institutions like the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Rewriting an NIE is a major undertaking because it is the most comprehensive of U.S. intelligence reports and reflects the combined judgment of all 16 American intelligence bodies.
The 2007 report created a political headache for the Bush administration when Republicans and some allied governments such as Israel criticized the broad public conclusion that Iran was backing off its nuclear ambitions.
The report reversed earlier findings that Iran was pursuing a nuclear-weapons program. It found with "high confidence" that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and with "moderate confidence" that it hadn't been restarted as of mid-2007.
So far, intelligence officials are not "ready to declare that invalid," a senior U.S. intelligence official said, emphasizing that the judgment covered the 2003-2007 time frame only. That leaves room for a reassessment of the period since the December 2007 report was completed, the official suggested.
The spy agencies "have a lot more information since we last did" a national intelligence estimate, the official said. Some of it "tracks precisely with what we've seen before," while other information "causes us to reassess what we've seen before," the official added.
If undertaken, a new NIE likely wouldn't be available for months. The U.S. and its allies have imposed an informal December deadline for Iran to comply with Western demands that it cease enriching uranium or face fresh economic sanctions.
A shift in the U.S. intelligence community's official stance -- concluding Iran restarted its nuclear weapons work or that Iran's ambitions have ramped up -- could significantly affect President Barack Obama's efforts to use diplomacy to contain Tehran's capabilities.
Any timeline for negotiations could be shortened if a new NIE concludes Tehran has restarted its atomic-weapons work, said officials involved in the diplomacy. But the White House could also use the new report to galvanize wider international support for sanctions against Tehran.
"Countries would no longer be able to hide behind the NIE," said a European official working on Iran.
U.S. intelligence officials have been discussing whether to update the 2007 NIE on Iran's nuclear capabilities, though no decision has been made yet on whether to proceed, a senior U.S. intelligence official said.
"At some point in the near future, our analytic community is going to want to press the reset button on our judgments on intent and weaponization in light of Qom and other information we're receiving," the senior intelligence official said, referring to Mr. Obama's recent revelation that Tehran was secretly assembling a uranium-enrichment facility at a military base outside the holy city of Qom.
Intelligence analysts have been plying the White House with shorter two- or three-page analyses on Iran, and Vice President Joe Biden's office and National Security Council officials have expressed interest in a new estimate, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Representatives for the director of national intelligence, the vice president and the NSC declined to comment.
In addition to the Qom disclosure, European intelligence services and United Nations inspectors have gathered new information pointing to a resumption of Iran's weapons work.
Germany's intelligence service, the BND, publicly challenged the U.S. NIE by disclosing information during a court case this year that pointed to ongoing Iranian nuclear-weapons work. The BND gave specifics on Iranian purchases of high-speed cameras and radiation detectors that could be used in testing atomic detonations.
A working paper composed by the IAEA, meanwhile, detailed evidence that Iran was continuing to experiment with nuclear warhead designs, according to people who have viewed it.
"The U.S. is being directly challenged by its closest allies" on Iran's weapons work, said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who heads Washington's Institute for Science and International Security and has viewed portions of the IAEA paper.
In the U.S., lawmakers in both parties are calling for new assessments.
"We need a much better intelligence picture of Iran," said California Rep. Jane Harman, who chairs the intelligence subcommittee on the House Homeland Security Committee and was the top Democrat on the House intelligence panel. Rep. Harman said intelligence officials should assume that the latest revelation of a secret enrichment facility may not be the only one, until they can disprove that assumption.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Iraq's Plan for Referendum on U.S. Pullout Fades by Liz Sly
Plans to hold a referendum that could have accelerated the withdrawal of American forces have quietly been shelved, as even those Iraqi politicians who were pushing for the poll conclude that it no longer would be a useful exercise.
Sunni Muslim politicians had wanted the referendum on the U.S.-Iraqi security pact to be conducted in January, at the same time as national elections. But with the clock ticking on preparations for the elections and the parliament still deadlocked over a new election law, there no longer is time to also draft and approve the legislation required to simultaneously hold a referendum, legislators say.
Perhaps more significant, the political will to hold a referendum appears to have evaporated amid the realization that U.S. troops are leaving anyway, and that it may not be in Iraq's interests to have them pull out even sooner.
"The political blocs are no longer interested in this issue. They want to ignore it because they are busy with the elections. They don't see it as something they could use to their advantage," said Salim Jabouri, spokesman for the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni bloc in parliament, which previously insisted on a referendum.
If the security pact were to be rejected by voters, U.S. troops would have to pull out of Iraq completely within a year, 11 months earlier than the deadline specified in the agreement. But American troops have already withdrawn from the cities, and all combat forces are to leave by August.
Troop levels have been reduced by 23,000 since January, to 120,000, and are scheduled to fall rapidly after the January elections, reaching 50,000 by August, U.S. officials say.
The security pact was negotiated during the Bush administration amid widespread Iraqi suspicions that U.S. forces had no intention of leaving. Indications that the Obama administration is serious about getting out have soothed those concerns, officials say.
"The Iraqis in general are no longer asking for a referendum because we see positive signs, namely the withdrawing of American troops," said Jaber Mashhadani, spokesman for Iyad Samarrai, the speaker of parliament. Samarrai also had supported the referendum.
Though some Iraqis would like to see U.S. forces leave sooner, others are already growing anxious about their impending departure.
"We still have concerns that Iraq does need American forces to be on the ground. The challenge of Iran still exists, and also the people are not confident in the performance of the Iraqi security forces," Jabouri said. "I can't say we want the Americans to stay [until the deadline] because that could cause some misunderstandings. But I will say that if they stay, it will have its advantages."
It is possible that the parliament elected in January will revive the referendum plan, but many lawmakers would argue strongly against it, said Sami Askari, a Shiite Muslim legislator who is close to Prime Minister Nouri Maliki. It could take months of political bickering for a new government to be formed, and the earliest a referendum could be held is probably next summer.
"The American forces are already leaving," he said. "Why spend hundreds of millions of dollars to hold a referendum and send them home a few months early?"
Sunni Muslim politicians had wanted the referendum on the U.S.-Iraqi security pact to be conducted in January, at the same time as national elections. But with the clock ticking on preparations for the elections and the parliament still deadlocked over a new election law, there no longer is time to also draft and approve the legislation required to simultaneously hold a referendum, legislators say.
Perhaps more significant, the political will to hold a referendum appears to have evaporated amid the realization that U.S. troops are leaving anyway, and that it may not be in Iraq's interests to have them pull out even sooner.
"The political blocs are no longer interested in this issue. They want to ignore it because they are busy with the elections. They don't see it as something they could use to their advantage," said Salim Jabouri, spokesman for the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni bloc in parliament, which previously insisted on a referendum.
If the security pact were to be rejected by voters, U.S. troops would have to pull out of Iraq completely within a year, 11 months earlier than the deadline specified in the agreement. But American troops have already withdrawn from the cities, and all combat forces are to leave by August.
Troop levels have been reduced by 23,000 since January, to 120,000, and are scheduled to fall rapidly after the January elections, reaching 50,000 by August, U.S. officials say.
The security pact was negotiated during the Bush administration amid widespread Iraqi suspicions that U.S. forces had no intention of leaving. Indications that the Obama administration is serious about getting out have soothed those concerns, officials say.
"The Iraqis in general are no longer asking for a referendum because we see positive signs, namely the withdrawing of American troops," said Jaber Mashhadani, spokesman for Iyad Samarrai, the speaker of parliament. Samarrai also had supported the referendum.
Though some Iraqis would like to see U.S. forces leave sooner, others are already growing anxious about their impending departure.
"We still have concerns that Iraq does need American forces to be on the ground. The challenge of Iran still exists, and also the people are not confident in the performance of the Iraqi security forces," Jabouri said. "I can't say we want the Americans to stay [until the deadline] because that could cause some misunderstandings. But I will say that if they stay, it will have its advantages."
It is possible that the parliament elected in January will revive the referendum plan, but many lawmakers would argue strongly against it, said Sami Askari, a Shiite Muslim legislator who is close to Prime Minister Nouri Maliki. It could take months of political bickering for a new government to be formed, and the earliest a referendum could be held is probably next summer.
"The American forces are already leaving," he said. "Why spend hundreds of millions of dollars to hold a referendum and send them home a few months early?"
Churches Denounce African Children as 'Witches' by Kathrine Houreld
The nine-year-old boy lay on a bloodstained hospital sheet crawling with ants, staring blindly at the wall.
His family pastor had accused him of being a witch, and his father then tried to force acid down his throat as an exorcism. It spilled as he struggled, burning away his face and eyes. The emaciated boy barely had strength left to whisper the name of the church that had denounced him — Mount Zion Lighthouse.
A month later, he died.
Nwanaokwo Edet was one of an increasing number of children in Africa accused of witchcraft by pastors and then tortured or killed, often by family members. Pastors were involved in half of 200 cases of "witch children," and 13 churches were named in the case files.
Some of the churches involved are renegade local branches of international franchises. Their parishioners take literally the Biblical exhortation, "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live."
"It is an outrage what they are allowing to take place in the name of Christianity," said Gary Foxcroft, head of nonprofit Stepping Stones Nigeria.
For their part, the families are often extremely poor, and sometimes even relieved to have one less mouth to feed. Poverty, conflict and poor education lay the foundation for accusations, which are then triggered by the death of a relative, the loss of a job or the denunciation of a pastor on the make, said Martin Dawes, a spokesman for the United Nations Children's Fund.
"When communities come under pressure, they look for scapegoats," he said. "It plays into traditional beliefs that someone is responsible for a negative change ... and children are defenseless."
____
The idea of witchcraft is hardly new, but it has taken on new life recently partly because of a rapid growth in evangelical Christianity. Campaigners against the practice say around 15,000 children have been accused in two of Nigeria's 36 states over the past decade and around 1,000 have been murdered. In the past month alone, three Nigerian children accused of witchcraft were killed and another three were set on fire.
Nigeria is one of the heartlands of abuse, but hardly the only one: the United Nations Children's Fund says tens of thousands of children have been targeted throughout Africa.
Church signs sprout around every twist of the road snaking through the jungle between Uyo, the capital of the southern Akwa Ibom state where Nwanaokwo lay, and Eket, home to many more rejected "witch children." Churches outnumber schools, clinics and banks put together. Many promise to solve parishioner's material worries as well as spiritual ones — eight out of ten Nigerians struggle by on less than $2 a day.
"Poverty must catch fire," insists the Born 2 Rule Crusade on one of Uyo's main streets.
"Where little shots become big shots in a short time," promises the Winner's Chapel down the road.
"Pray your way to riches," advises Embassy of Christ a few blocks away.
It's hard for churches to carve out a congregation with so much competition. So some pastors establish their credentials by accusing children of witchcraft.
Nwanaokwo said he knew the pastor who accused him only as Pastor King. Mount Zion Lighthouse in Nigeria at first confirmed that a Pastor King worked for them, then denied that they knew any such person.
Bishop A.D. Ayakndue, the head of the church in Nigeria, said pastors were encouraged to pray about witchcraft, but not to abuse children.
"We pray over that problem (of witchcraft) very powerfully," he said. "But we can never hurt a child."
The Nigerian church is a branch of a Californian church by the same name. But the California church says it lost touch with its Nigerian offshoots several years ago.
"I had no idea," said church elder Carrie King by phone from Tracy, Calif. "I knew people believed in witchcraft over there but we believe in the power of prayer, not physically harming people."
The Mount Zion Lighthouse — also named by three other families as the accuser of their children — is part of the powerful Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria. The Fellowship's president, Ayo Oritsejafor, said the Fellowship was the fastest-growing religious group in Nigeria, with more than 30 million members.
"We have grown so much in the past few years we cannot keep an eye on everybody," he explained.
But Foxcroft, the head of Stepping Stones, said if the organization was able to collect membership fees, it could also police its members better. He had already written to the organization twice to alert it to the abuse, he said. He suggested the fellowship ask members to sign forms denouncing abuse or hold meetings to educate pastors about the new child rights law in the state of Akwa Ibom, which makes it illegal to denounce children as witches. Similar laws and education were needed in other states, he said.
Sam Itauma of the Children's Rights and Rehabilitation Network said it is the most vulnerable children — the orphaned, sick, disabled or poor — who are most often denounced. In Nwanaokwo's case, his poor father and dead mother made him an easy target.
"Even churches who didn't use to 'find' child witches are being forced into it by the competition," said Itauma. "They are seen as spiritually powerful because they can detect witchcraft and the parents may even pay them money for an exorcism."
That's what Margaret Eyekang did when her 8-year-old daughter Abigail was accused by a "prophet" from the Apostolic Church, because the girl liked to sleep outside on hot nights — interpreted as meaning she might be flying off to join a coven. A series of exorcisms cost Eyekang eight months' wages, or US $270. The payments bankrupted her.
Neighbors also attacked her daughter.
"They beat her with sticks and asked me why I was bringing them a witch child," she said. A relative offered Eyekang floor space but Abigail was not welcome and had to sleep in the streets.
Members of two other families said pastors from the Apostolic Church had accused their children of witchcraft, but asked not to be named for fear of retaliation.
The Nigeria Apostolic Church refused repeated requests made by phone, e-mail and in person for comment.
___
At first glance, there's nothing unusual about the laughing, grubby kids playing hopscotch or reading from a tattered Dick and Jane book by the graffiti-scrawled cinderblock house. But this is where children like Abigail end up after being labeled witches by churches and abandoned or tortured by their families.
There's a scar above Jane's shy smile: her mother tried to saw off the top of her skull after a pastor denounced her and repeated exorcisms costing a total of $60 didn't cure her of witchcraft. Mary, 15, is just beginning to think about boys and how they will look at the scar tissue on her face caused when her mother doused her in caustic soda. Twelve-year-old Rachel dreamed of being a banker but instead was chained up by her pastor, starved and beaten with sticks repeatedly; her uncle paid him $60 for the exorcism.
Israel's cousin tried to bury him alive, Nwaekwa's father drove a nail through her head, and sweet-tempered Jerry — all knees, elbows and toothy grin — was beaten by his pastor, starved, made to eat cement and then set on fire by his father as his pastor's wife cheered it on.
The children at the home run by Itauma's organization have been mutilated as casually as the praying mantises they play with. Home officials asked for the children's last names not to be used to protect them from retaliation.
The home was founded in 2003 with seven children; it now has 120 to 200 at any given time as children are reconciled with their families and new victims arrive.
Helen Ukpabio is one of the few evangelists publicly linked to the denunciation of child witches. She heads the enormous Liberty Gospel church in Calabar, where Nwanaokwo used to live. Ukpabio makes and distributes popular books and DVDs on witchcraft; in one film, a group of child witches pull out a man's eyeballs. In another book, she advises that 60 percent of the inability to bear children is caused by witchcraft.
In an interview, Ukpabio is accompanied by her lawyer, church officials and personal film crew.
"Witchcraft is real," Ukpabio insisted, before denouncing the physical abuse of children. Ukpabio says she performs non-abusive exorcisms for free and was not aware of or responsible for any misinterpretation of her materials.
"I don't know about that," she declared.
However, she then acknowledged that she had seen a pastor from the Apostolic Church break a girl's jaw during an exorcism. Ukpabio said she prayed over her that night and cast out the demon. She did not respond to questions on whether she took the girl to hospital or complained about the injury to church authorities.
After activists publicly identified Liberty Gospel as denouncing "child witches," armed police arrived at Itauma's home accompanied by a church lawyer. Three children were injured in the fracas. Itauma asked that other churches identified by children not be named to protect their victims.
"We cannot afford to make enemies of all the churches around here," he said. "But we know the vast majority of them are involved in the abuse even if their headquarters aren't aware."
Just mentioning the name of a church is enough to frighten a group of bubbly children at the home.
"Please stop the pastors who hurt us," said Jerry quietly, touching the scars on his face. "I believe in God and God knows I am not a witch."
His family pastor had accused him of being a witch, and his father then tried to force acid down his throat as an exorcism. It spilled as he struggled, burning away his face and eyes. The emaciated boy barely had strength left to whisper the name of the church that had denounced him — Mount Zion Lighthouse.
A month later, he died.
Nwanaokwo Edet was one of an increasing number of children in Africa accused of witchcraft by pastors and then tortured or killed, often by family members. Pastors were involved in half of 200 cases of "witch children," and 13 churches were named in the case files.
Some of the churches involved are renegade local branches of international franchises. Their parishioners take literally the Biblical exhortation, "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live."
"It is an outrage what they are allowing to take place in the name of Christianity," said Gary Foxcroft, head of nonprofit Stepping Stones Nigeria.
For their part, the families are often extremely poor, and sometimes even relieved to have one less mouth to feed. Poverty, conflict and poor education lay the foundation for accusations, which are then triggered by the death of a relative, the loss of a job or the denunciation of a pastor on the make, said Martin Dawes, a spokesman for the United Nations Children's Fund.
"When communities come under pressure, they look for scapegoats," he said. "It plays into traditional beliefs that someone is responsible for a negative change ... and children are defenseless."
____
The idea of witchcraft is hardly new, but it has taken on new life recently partly because of a rapid growth in evangelical Christianity. Campaigners against the practice say around 15,000 children have been accused in two of Nigeria's 36 states over the past decade and around 1,000 have been murdered. In the past month alone, three Nigerian children accused of witchcraft were killed and another three were set on fire.
Nigeria is one of the heartlands of abuse, but hardly the only one: the United Nations Children's Fund says tens of thousands of children have been targeted throughout Africa.
Church signs sprout around every twist of the road snaking through the jungle between Uyo, the capital of the southern Akwa Ibom state where Nwanaokwo lay, and Eket, home to many more rejected "witch children." Churches outnumber schools, clinics and banks put together. Many promise to solve parishioner's material worries as well as spiritual ones — eight out of ten Nigerians struggle by on less than $2 a day.
"Poverty must catch fire," insists the Born 2 Rule Crusade on one of Uyo's main streets.
"Where little shots become big shots in a short time," promises the Winner's Chapel down the road.
"Pray your way to riches," advises Embassy of Christ a few blocks away.
It's hard for churches to carve out a congregation with so much competition. So some pastors establish their credentials by accusing children of witchcraft.
Nwanaokwo said he knew the pastor who accused him only as Pastor King. Mount Zion Lighthouse in Nigeria at first confirmed that a Pastor King worked for them, then denied that they knew any such person.
Bishop A.D. Ayakndue, the head of the church in Nigeria, said pastors were encouraged to pray about witchcraft, but not to abuse children.
"We pray over that problem (of witchcraft) very powerfully," he said. "But we can never hurt a child."
The Nigerian church is a branch of a Californian church by the same name. But the California church says it lost touch with its Nigerian offshoots several years ago.
"I had no idea," said church elder Carrie King by phone from Tracy, Calif. "I knew people believed in witchcraft over there but we believe in the power of prayer, not physically harming people."
The Mount Zion Lighthouse — also named by three other families as the accuser of their children — is part of the powerful Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria. The Fellowship's president, Ayo Oritsejafor, said the Fellowship was the fastest-growing religious group in Nigeria, with more than 30 million members.
"We have grown so much in the past few years we cannot keep an eye on everybody," he explained.
But Foxcroft, the head of Stepping Stones, said if the organization was able to collect membership fees, it could also police its members better. He had already written to the organization twice to alert it to the abuse, he said. He suggested the fellowship ask members to sign forms denouncing abuse or hold meetings to educate pastors about the new child rights law in the state of Akwa Ibom, which makes it illegal to denounce children as witches. Similar laws and education were needed in other states, he said.
Sam Itauma of the Children's Rights and Rehabilitation Network said it is the most vulnerable children — the orphaned, sick, disabled or poor — who are most often denounced. In Nwanaokwo's case, his poor father and dead mother made him an easy target.
"Even churches who didn't use to 'find' child witches are being forced into it by the competition," said Itauma. "They are seen as spiritually powerful because they can detect witchcraft and the parents may even pay them money for an exorcism."
That's what Margaret Eyekang did when her 8-year-old daughter Abigail was accused by a "prophet" from the Apostolic Church, because the girl liked to sleep outside on hot nights — interpreted as meaning she might be flying off to join a coven. A series of exorcisms cost Eyekang eight months' wages, or US $270. The payments bankrupted her.
Neighbors also attacked her daughter.
"They beat her with sticks and asked me why I was bringing them a witch child," she said. A relative offered Eyekang floor space but Abigail was not welcome and had to sleep in the streets.
Members of two other families said pastors from the Apostolic Church had accused their children of witchcraft, but asked not to be named for fear of retaliation.
The Nigeria Apostolic Church refused repeated requests made by phone, e-mail and in person for comment.
___
At first glance, there's nothing unusual about the laughing, grubby kids playing hopscotch or reading from a tattered Dick and Jane book by the graffiti-scrawled cinderblock house. But this is where children like Abigail end up after being labeled witches by churches and abandoned or tortured by their families.
There's a scar above Jane's shy smile: her mother tried to saw off the top of her skull after a pastor denounced her and repeated exorcisms costing a total of $60 didn't cure her of witchcraft. Mary, 15, is just beginning to think about boys and how they will look at the scar tissue on her face caused when her mother doused her in caustic soda. Twelve-year-old Rachel dreamed of being a banker but instead was chained up by her pastor, starved and beaten with sticks repeatedly; her uncle paid him $60 for the exorcism.
Israel's cousin tried to bury him alive, Nwaekwa's father drove a nail through her head, and sweet-tempered Jerry — all knees, elbows and toothy grin — was beaten by his pastor, starved, made to eat cement and then set on fire by his father as his pastor's wife cheered it on.
The children at the home run by Itauma's organization have been mutilated as casually as the praying mantises they play with. Home officials asked for the children's last names not to be used to protect them from retaliation.
The home was founded in 2003 with seven children; it now has 120 to 200 at any given time as children are reconciled with their families and new victims arrive.
Helen Ukpabio is one of the few evangelists publicly linked to the denunciation of child witches. She heads the enormous Liberty Gospel church in Calabar, where Nwanaokwo used to live. Ukpabio makes and distributes popular books and DVDs on witchcraft; in one film, a group of child witches pull out a man's eyeballs. In another book, she advises that 60 percent of the inability to bear children is caused by witchcraft.
In an interview, Ukpabio is accompanied by her lawyer, church officials and personal film crew.
"Witchcraft is real," Ukpabio insisted, before denouncing the physical abuse of children. Ukpabio says she performs non-abusive exorcisms for free and was not aware of or responsible for any misinterpretation of her materials.
"I don't know about that," she declared.
However, she then acknowledged that she had seen a pastor from the Apostolic Church break a girl's jaw during an exorcism. Ukpabio said she prayed over her that night and cast out the demon. She did not respond to questions on whether she took the girl to hospital or complained about the injury to church authorities.
After activists publicly identified Liberty Gospel as denouncing "child witches," armed police arrived at Itauma's home accompanied by a church lawyer. Three children were injured in the fracas. Itauma asked that other churches identified by children not be named to protect their victims.
"We cannot afford to make enemies of all the churches around here," he said. "But we know the vast majority of them are involved in the abuse even if their headquarters aren't aware."
Just mentioning the name of a church is enough to frighten a group of bubbly children at the home.
"Please stop the pastors who hurt us," said Jerry quietly, touching the scars on his face. "I believe in God and God knows I am not a witch."
Friday, October 16, 2009
UAV Updates: University Websites and Latest UAV: MIT Indoor Autonomous Helicopter
Advances in autonomous helicopters have been many over the years, but as far as we can tell, there's essentially no limit to how awesome they can get. MIT's recently developed an autonomous, robotic helicopter which is also able to navigate itself intelligently through a changing environment. The helicopter, which is equipped with a dual-camera array and a laser scanner, maps its terrain in real time, identifying changes along the way. An integrated autonomous exploration module allows the heli to interact with the changing, unknown environment it is mapping. The helicopter was shown off at the AUVSI 2009 International Aerial Robotics Competition, completing five missions -- a feat not before seen in the 19-year history of the show. Check out the very educational video after the break.
Arizona State University
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle 2005 Capstone Engineering Project
http://ctas.east.asu.edu/post/capweb/capweb05/coverpage.htm
Our contract called for the design, construction, and testing of a wing-hub assembly for a novel new UAV. This vehicle is intended as a fixed-wing drone that our helicopter pilots can deploy in flight to scout ahead, and which converts to auto-gyro mode for safe vertical landing and recovery in rough terrain. The page links below will guide you through our project.
Carnegie Mellon University
Autonomous Helicopter Project
http://www-2.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/project/chopper/www/
The goal of Autonomous Helicopter Project is to develop a vision-guided robot helicopter which can autonomously carry out the following goal mission in any weather conditions and using only on-board intelligence and computing power.
Clarkson University
Inflatable Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (i-UAV)
http://people.clarkson.edu/~pmarzocc/i-uav/i-uav-web.html
The i-UAV Team is an interdisciplinary group of faculty and students in the Schools of Engineering and Arts and Sciences interested in aeronautical and space design, dynamic systems, controls, and optimization. The i-UAV team members combine expertise and capabilities from a broad range of disciplines. Professors from Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering Department and from Mathematics and Computer Science and Physics are working together with a group of talented students toward the design, modeling, realization and tests of novel UAV concept.
Cornell University
Cornell University Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Team
http://www.cuuav.org/
Cornell University UAV team is a group of undergraduate engineering students who work together to design, construct, test and eventually fly an autonomous fixed wing aircraft in AUVSI's International Student Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Competition.
Drexel University
Closed Quarter Aerial Robotics (CQAR)
http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~weg22/CQAR.html
Indoor aerial robotics is a new and emerging field of study and is the central focus of my research. I am currently working on a project entitled Closed Quarter Aerial Robotics (CQAR) that has applications such as surveilling/monitoring large indoor areas to safe keep stadiums, warehouses, subway tunnels and train stations. The CQAR prototype (designed by Gordon Johnson) weighs 27 g (app. the weight of 3 quarters) and flies at about 5 mph.
Florida Institute of Technology
Versatile Robotic Tilt-rotor for Information Gathering Operations (VERTIGO)
http://my.fit.edu/senior_design/vertigo/overview.html
In our project we will build an aircraft that can take off and land vertically and fly horizontally. We will base our design on the idea behind the Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey. With VERTIGO we hope to expand into the market of unmanned air vehicles (UAV). Our vehicle will be one of the first UAVs to exploit the benefits of the airplane and the helicopter. We anticipate that companies and/or people will want this vehicle because of its surveillance capabilities coupled with the all the benefits of both airplanes and helicopters.
Georgia Institute of Technology
Georgia Tech Aerial Robotics
http://controls.ae.gatech.edu/gtar/
Georgia Tech UAV Research Facility
http://uav.ae.gatech.edu/
Georgia Tech Aerial Robotics Team
http://www.imaginerobots.com/aerialrobots/source/aerialrobots_full.asp
GTRI Traffic UAV
http://avdil.gtri.gatech.edu/RCM/RCM/DroneProject.html
Iowa State University
Microprocessor-Controlled Aerial Robotics Team (Micro-CART)
http://seniord.ee.iastate.edu/ongo03/
The goal of Micro-CART is to launch Iowa State University into this (International Aerial Robotics Competition) competition. An autonomous helicopter will be used for the primary vehicle, and it will carry a smaller sub-vehicle to assist in completing the task. Due to the level of complexity involved with the design and creation of these vehicles, this project will take longer than two semesters to complete. The current projected completion date is Spring 2005 for the July competition.
Lehigh University
Micro Aerial Vehicle Research
http://www.lehigh.edu/~inmav/2005/Competition.htm
Designed a micro-UAV to compete in the 2005 International MAV Competition.
LeTourneau University
Phoenix Project
http://www.letu.edu/opencms/opencms/_Academics/Engineering/engineering/student-projects/auvsi/aboutlu.html
Undergraduate UAV design/ build club that competes in the International Aerial Robotics Competition.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PCUAV: Parent Child Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/pcuav/
PCUAV is MIT's Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics' answer to long distance unmanned surveillance. Our goal is to demonstrate key technologies of a system that will provide a low-cost solution to real-time long-distance observation (In short: Getting close from a distance).
MIT/Draper Autonomous Helicopter Project
http://web.mit.edu/whall/www/heli/
The Draper Small Autonomous Aerial Vehicle, or DSAAV, is a high-end radio-control helicopter that has been instrumented and computerized to fly autonomously. As a demonstration of its capabilities, the DSAAV team, lead by Draper engineer Paul DeBitetto, entered the helicopter in the Sixth Annual International Aerial Robotics Contest held at the EPCOT Center, and won. The objective of vehicles entered in the contest was to autonomously survey a field containing hazardous waste barrels and report the barrel locations within one meter.
NOTE: LAST USED IN 1997
Mesa State College
MSC Aerial Robotics
http://www.flyingrobots.com/our_mission.htm
Our Mission is to design and build an autonomous flying robot that will meet and exceed the requirements of the Associations for Unmanned Vehicle Systems' International Aerial Robotics Competition and take fist place.
Mississippi State University
http://www.ae.msstate.edu/%7Emasoud/Projects/mav.html
MSU is apart of a UAV competition. This is their site covering what they did.
New Mexico State University
http://www.psl.nmsu.edu/aas/uv.php
NMSU has a UAV group under the branch of Aerospace & Autonomous Systems Laboratory.
North Carolina State University
NCSU Aerial Robotics Club
http://www.ncsu.edu/stud_orgs/ar/
The ARC at NC State wants to create an outlet for engineering students to challenge themselves in completing missions the world deems currently impossible. The NCSU Aerial Robotics team was formed in Oct 2000 and plans to participate in two international autonomous flying robotics competitions. We strive to create a fleet of autonomous vehicles for research and for competitions.
Pima Community College
UAV Club
http://wcedu.pima.edu/~chdiscenza/
The main activity of the Pima UAV Club is to compete in the International Aerial Robotics Competition (IARC).
Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology
Robotics Team
http://rhitrobotics.org/
http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~carterfd/aerial_robotics_club.html
The Robotics Team is building a helicopter-style unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for a national contest this summer. It has to be able to fly from one point to another, identify a particular building, find an open window in that building, launch a robotic ground vehicle through the window, and avoid any obstacles - all without any human supervision.
South Dakota School of Mines and Technology
UAV Project (Part of CAMP - Center for excellence and Advanced Manufacturing and Production)
http://uav.sdsmt.edu/uav.php?page=Home
We are a team of students and faculty at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology devoting our time and talent to develop an autonomous unmanned aerial vehicle, or UAV for short. We will be competing in the International Aerial Robotics Competition which is being held at the McKenna Urban Operations Site at Fort Benning, Georgia this July.
Southern Polytechnic State University
Aerial Robotics Team
http://a-robotics.spsu.edu/
The SPSU Aerial Robotics Team has participated in the International Aerial Robotics Competition (IARC). This annual competition is sponsored by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems, International (AUVSI), and is involves both robot aircraft and artificial intelligence. This challenge, and is designed to make the students push the use of the technology further than ever.
Stanford University
Dragonfly Project
http://sun-valley.stanford.edu/hybrid/UAV/body_index.html
http://airtraffic1.stanford.edu/~uav/
In a new project at Stanford University, funded by the FAA and DARPA and helped by the NASA Ames, we are developing systems to permit the robust navigation and enhanced control of a single UAV, as well as algorithms for the coordinated flight of multiple UAVs.
HUMMINGBIRD Aerospace Robotics Laboratory
http://sun-valley.stanford.edu/projects/helicopters/helicopters.html/
HUMMINGBIRD is a small autonomous helicopter build by a team at the ARL. It consists of a heavily modified "60 size" remote control model helicopter with a 2.76 cu.in. engine. Navigational sensing is provided entirely by a pair of Trimble Global Positioning System receivers operating using Differential Carrier Phase calculations. By using four separate antennas, HUMMINGBIRD is able to sense its attitude as well as position with GPS. As an additional sensor, HUMMINGBIRD has an onboard camera system to gather additional information about its environment. Using this system, HUMMINGBIRD is capable of object location, identification, and retrieval using a retractable tether with a magnet ic manipulator. HUMMINGBIRD's current flight capabilities include autonomous take-off, hover, trajectory following, and landing. The ability to fly autonomously and retrieve a small ferromagnetic disk was sufficient to win the 1995 International Aerial Robotics Competition sponsored by the Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI). Stanford was the first and only team in the six years of this competition to successfully retrieve and move a target disk.
Texas A&M University
The Texas Buzzard
http://aeweb.tamu.edu/aeroel/buzzard/
The Texas Buzzard is an autonomous UAV for aerial reconnaissance developed by a team of Aerospace Engineering students at Texas A&M University for entry in the 2004 AUVSI Student UAV Competition.
The Ohio State University
The Aerial Robotics Team
http://tarc.org.ohio-state.edu/
The mission requires that an autonomous vehicle fly to a specified location from a distance of 3 kilometers and identify a particular structure. Once the structure is identified a sensor probe must carry out reconnaissance of a particular type. Access to the structure will be through doors, windows etc. The required information will not be accessible from the outside; therefore the probe must access the interior in order to achieve the desired information.
University of Arizona
Aerial Robotics Club
http://clubs.engr.arizona.edu/arc/0405site/index.htm
Undergraduate UAV design/ build club that competes in the International Aerial Robotics Competition.
Aerial Robotics at the University of Arizona
http://clubs.engr.arizona.edu/arc/Keith/ARC%20WEBSITE/
Undergraduate UAV design/ build club that competes in the International Aerial Robotics Competition.
NOTE: MAYBE THE SAME AS THE ABOVE LISTING
University of California at Berkley
BEAR: Berkeley Aerobot Team
http://robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/bear/
The BErkeley AeRobot (BEAR) project is a collective, interdisciplinary research effort at UC Berkeley that encompasses the disciplines of hybrid systems theory, navigation, control, computer vision, communication, and multi-agent coordination, since 1996. They currently operate six fully instrumented helicopters, in addition to many fixed- and rotary wing vehicles under development, equipped with GPS/INS, camera, and other sensors on board, which we have been using to validate our control systems design algorithms for UAVs.
University of Central Florida
Robotics Laboratory Project Pegasus
http://robotics.ucf.edu/air/projectpegasus.php?menu=air
We are designing an autonomous hovering platform for the AUVSI International Autonomous Aerial Vehicle Competition. The power plant will consist of four electric lift motors and two electric pusher motors. The vehicle will be able to fly autonomously, avoid obstacles, and locate objects using a machine vision system. The object detection will be done using a machine-learning algorithm that classifies images. Humming Bird
http://www.ucfuav.com/index.html
Same as above.
University of Colorado
http://aerospace.colorado.edu/research/recuv_brochure.pdf
http://recuv.colorado.edu/index.cgi?dir=home&num=&perpage=§ion=&session=&template=newrecuv
The University of Colorado has a research department dedicated to UAV research. The UAV applications are aimed towards earth and atmospheric research. They also have a great news section aimed towards UAVs being used for research.
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
UIUC Aerial Robotics Club
http://www.aae.uiuc.edu/cornbots/
“We’re gonna git you sucka.” The ARC intended to give students learning opportunities in a real-world application of some of the latest robotics technologies. Our ultimate goal is to compete in the International Aerial Robotics Competition. To do so we have full autonomy to undertake whatever research, design and construction necessary to the completion of that goal. Our past projects have included autonomous land vehicles, blimp, and fixed wing aircraft--all working with some degree of success. Currently we are undertaking the most ambitious project, the design and construction of a fully autonomous helicopter that will compete in the International Aerial Robotics Competition.
University of Maryland
Autonomous Vehicle Laboratory
http://www.aero.umd.edu/research/avl.html
The Autonomous Vehicle Laboratory (AVL) conducts research and development in the areas of advanced aerospace vehicle concepts that incorporate autonomous and intelligent software for making complex decisions. Applications include micro, mini and full-scale Uninhabited Air Vehicles, nano-satellites, and other robotic systems.
University of Notre Dame
Micro Aerial Vehicle Development Group
http://www.nd.edu/~mav/
The Notre Dame Micro Aerial Vehicle Development Group is no longer active at the University of Notre Dame. The pages associated with this website have not been updated since May 2002. Some of the original web page materials remain within this website as a reference for other micro air vehicle developers. However, it is duly noted that the information on this website is dated and many of the links to other webpages have not been verified to still be accurate. It is likely that the contents of this web page will disappear completely in the future.
University of Southern California
Autonomous Flying Vehicle Project
http://www-robotics.usc.edu/~avatar/
The USC Autonomous Flying Vehicle Project was initiated in 1991. Since then the Robotic Embedded Systems Laboratory has designed, built and conducted research with four robot helicopters, the latest being the 3rd generation AVATAR (Autonomous Vehicle Aerial Tracking And Reconnaissance). Since the beginning of the project, a guiding design philosophy has been to create flying robots with high levels of autonomy. Initially, the focus of our research was in creating a reliable control mechanism for a model helicopter. Once that had been achieved we focused on performing higher lever tasks with the helicopter. Besides stable autonomous flight, today we are able to perform tasks such as GPS waypoint navigation, autonomous vision-based landing and autonomous sensor deployment. We are currently researching areas such as autonomous landing on a moving target, deployment on a moving target, stealthy target pursuit and vision-based obstacle avoidance in 3D.
University of Texas at Austin
UT Aerial Robotics
http://iarc1.ece.utexas.edu/
The University of Texas Aerial Robotics Team is composed of people from the University's Robotics Team. Our mission is to build an unmanned autonomous flying vehicle for the 2005 IARC competition. For Fall 2004 we are focused on a fixed wing system to complete the GPS waypoint navigation stage. We will keep our working helicopter system in good shape but first we will get a foothold on testing procedures with the fixed system.
University of Texas at Arlington
Autonomous Vehicles Laboratory (AVL)
http://www3.uta.edu/faculty/reyes/AVL/Default.htm
The University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) is rejuvenating its Autonomous Vehicles Laboratory (AVL). The AVL is concerned with answering a host of research questions related to engineering remotely-controlled, autonomous, and cooperatively-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), as well as numerous supporting technologies. The AVL is equally concerned with providing undergraduate and graduate students with multidisciplinary engineering experiences in developing AVs. The AVL will eventually become a microcosm where student teams apply "best practices" to create AV solutions that can win international student competitions.
University of Washington
Flight Systems Laboratory
http://www.aa.washington.edu/research/fsl/
OUTDATED. NONE OF THE LINKS WORK
Trans-Pacific UAV Design
http://www.aa.washington.edu/courses/aa410/2000_2001/transpac.html
The UW-TransPac UAV is a 55 lbs all composite UAV capable of carrying a payload of 5.5 lbs over a range of 5000 miles. A full scale vehicle (with a temporary fuselage) was tested thoroughly at the Kirsten Wind Tunnel. The full vehicle, including the final graphite-epoxy fuselage, wing, tail, and control surfaces, was completed on schedule within 15 weeks of project start. The UW-TransPac can be launched using a catapult or a conventional landing gear. It was designed for simplicity and low cost.
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Autonomous Aerial Vehicle Team (AAVT)
http://www.me.vt.edu/uav/
The Virginia Tech Autonomous Aerial Vehicle Team is comprised of 22 members of the Mechanical Engineering department. The goal of our team is to design and equip two aerial vehicles for autonomous, unmanned flight. The vehicles will perform in two separate competitions sponsored by the Association for Unmanned Vehicles International (AUVSI). Our team is funded and supported by various sponsors, and the JOUSTER group.
INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITIES
Exeter University (United Kingdom)
4th Year UAV Project
http://www.projects.ex.ac.uk/uav/
An ongoing project here at the department of Engineering is the Flying Platform project. Running for the past two years as a 4th year group project the aim has been to design, manufacture and develop an autonomous flying platform. The specifications required of the project has meant that a large number of Engineering disciplines have had to be incorporated including, mechanical, control, electrical, management and structural engineering. The differing areas of the projects have included mathematical modeling, rotor design, ignition systems, gyroscopic stability and platform design.
Institut de Recherche en Communications et en Cybernétique de Nantes (France)
Robea-ROBVOLINT Project
http://www.ircyn.ec-nantes.fr/irccyn/d/en/equipes/Robotique/Themes/Mobile&theme=8192#VOL_INT
The Robea-ROBVOLINT project, which include four laboratories (IRCCyN, I3S, IRISA/Rennes and CEA/List), is directed by Professor Tarek Hamel (I3S). This project aims at making progress knowledge in the field of aerial robotics with an application in indoor environment. This goal requires a scientific and technical gait leading in parallel and narrowly the developments of the theory and experimentation.
NOTE: NO INDIVIDUAL WEBSITE
Monash University (Australia)
Aerobotics Research Group at Monash
http://www.ctie.monash.edu.au/hargrave/aerobotics.html
The Aerobotics© (Aerial Robotics) Research Group at Monash, established in 1999, is interested in all aspects of the design, construction and application of UAVs. The Group's primary focus is on electrically powered aircraft however its research is also supported by more conventional aircraft particularly for long range applications.
Queensland University of Technology (Australia)
QUAV
http://www.bee.qut.edu.au/projects/quav/Undergraduate/index_undergraduate.html
What are we trying to do here in the QUT Avionics Dept? Well, we produce approximately 50 highly skilled avionics engineers each year. The QUAV projects are designed to challenge and provide practical experience in working on aerospace projects for the students. In addition, the staff associated with these projects have a great desire and enthusiasm in developing robust UAV platforms. QUT Avionics are not so interested in aerodynamic design of our UAVs, but more in the control aspects of the UAVs.
Simon Fraser University (Canada)
Helicopter Automation With Control Systems (HAWCS)
http://www.sfu.ca/~arg/heli/index.html
We are a bunch of students and hobbyists working on UAV systems. We call ourselves HAWCS, which comes from our group name for an undergraduate engineering project class in 2001. Our initial goal is to implement an autopilot for a model helicopter. However, our eventual goal is to achieve the mission and win the top prize at the annual International Aerial Robotics Competition.
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Switzerland)
UAV Group (within the Measurement and Control Laboratory)
http://www.uav.ethz.ch/
http://www.uav.ethz.ch/research/projects/student_research_UAV
Our group deals with various aspects of flight control, navigation, trajectory planning, and mission management for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Originally our main focus was on robust flight control for unmanned helicopters. However, during the last few years we have extended our research activities on flight control for fixed wing aircraft and airships as well as integrated navigation algorithms and computer board developments.
Technische Universitaet Berlin (Germany)
MARVIN (Multi-purpose Aerial Robot Vehicle with Intelligent Navigation)
http://pdv.cs.tu-berlin.de/MARVIN/
Since 1993 the Real Time Systems & Robotics Group (PDV) has been developing autonomously operating flying robots for participation in the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International's (AUVSI) International Aerial Robotics Competition (IARC). This work has been done basically by students in the framework of the project course "PDV-/Robotik-Projekt" and master's theses.
University of Alberta (Canada)
University of Alberta Aerial Robotics Group
http://www.ece.ualberta.ca/~uaarg/
The University of Alberta Aerial Robotics Group (UAARG) is an interdisciplinary student group that actively involved in the design and construction of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for the International Aerial Robotics Competition (IARC) as well as the Seafarers Student UAV Competition.
University of British Columbia (Canada)
Fizz Aerial Robotics Club
http://engineering.physics.ubc.ca/~roboclub/
Official web site of the Fizz Aerial Robotics Club.
NOTE: OUTDATED
http://www.mech.ubc.ca/~ARC
NOTE: DOES NOT WORK
University of Ottawa (Canada)
Advanced Robotic Innovations Society in Engineering (ARISE) Aerial
http://www.site.uottawa.ca/arise/uav.html
The Advanced Robotic Innovations Society in Engineering (ARISE) is a student run club design to foster a competitive interest in robotics at the University of Ottawa. ARISE is an organization dedicated to research, education, and innovation. Founded in October 2003, we are a team of highly dedicated engineering and administrative students looking to create a name for ourselves within the school and among universities in North America. In response to the great amount of interest we've received, ARISE is very happy to announce our expansion into a new project this year - the AUVSI's International Aerial Robotics Competition (IARC).
University of Sydney (Australia)
Research on Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Robotic Aircraft
http://www.aeromech.usyd.edu.au/wwwdocs/uav.html
The Aeronautical Engineering UAV Research Group has one of Australia’s largest and most active team of robotic aircraft researchers, comprising of up to ten academics and research students. Originally developed to provide flight research platforms in support of the department’s various research activities, they are also used to enhance skills in airframe design and fabrication, flight instrumentation, flight control systems, and operational aspects of UAVs. They form the basis of technology demonstrators for many aspects of Aeronautical Engineering, and are now also being used to explore commercial applications for autonomous flight vehicles.
University of Waterloo, Canada (Canada)
Waterloo Aerial Robotics Group
http://www.ece.uwaterloo.ca/~warg/
The Waterloo Aerial Robotics Group is a team of University of Waterloo students who, with the support of our sponsors, are developing a series of fully autonomous flying robots for entry into the International Aerial Robotics Competition. The objective of this multi-year competition is to push the envelope of technology by seriously challenging students to accomplish near-impossible mission objectives. The goal is to build a fleet of air vehicles capable of flying three kilometers, identifying target buildings, entering the structures and navigating inside to obtain visual reconnaissance information.
NO WEBSITE
Many other universities, both domestic and international, have UAV/ aerial robotics clubs or teams. However, they either do not have a group website and/or where part of a design course. Below is a list of some universities:
Illinois Institute of Technology
Kansas University
Mississippi State University Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Team
Oregon State University Aerial Robotics Team
Santa Clara University Aerial Robotics Team
University of Calgary Autonomous Robotics Team
University of Toronto Aerial Robotics Club
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Augmented Reality to the max with Layars for iPhone 3GS by Mel Martin
Every so often an app comes along that you just get excited about. Well, I'm excited about the Layar Reality Browser, and even better: it's free!
This app has been available on the Android platform, and iPhone users have been eagerly awaiting it. Wait no more.
The Layar app will only run on an iPhone 3GS because it really needs that built-in compass. So what does it do? Quite a lot. The app displays real time information based on your location and the direction you are facing, overlaying the camera with locations and information that you are looking for.
Yes, like other apps with augmented reality, it can find food and shopping, but that's only the beginning. You can find apartments for rent, Flickr photos taken near your location, mountain peaks, tourist information, and the list goes on and on. The Layar screen shows your live camera view, a radar-like display showing you a 360 degree view of 'hits' near you, the accuracy of your GPS fix, and the number of items it has located.
The Layars app is based on an open architecture, so it can interact with an unlimited amount of information set up to talk to the platform. It is globally aware, not just U.S. centric, and lots of 3rd party developers are jumping in.
In operation it generally worked very well. I didn't see any crashes, but at times some of the many servers supplying information did not seem to be up and running. When I wanted to see some information on the mountains in my area, it worked great one time, and the next time it said there was nothing around, even though I was standing in the foothills of some 5,000-foot peaks.
Generally though, the app was well behaved, and as you explore the riches it contains your mind races with all the possibilities an app like this has. You don't have to use only the camera view. You can get a list of nearby points of interest or see everything on a 2D Google map. Wikipedia is even available. When I brought it up, it gave me some information on my town, a nearby school, and some info about nearby parks.
I hope this app really grows, because the potential here is limitless. Try it for yourself. There's no cost, and no risk. You'll be surprised at all the stuff around you. I'm going on a trip soon, and can't wait to explore with Layars.
The Message of Dollar Disdain by Judy Shelton
Unprecedented spending, unending fiscal deficits, unconscionable accumulations of government debt: These are the trends that are shaping America's financial future. And since loose monetary policy and a weak U.S. dollar are part of the mix, apparently, it's no wonder people around the world are searching for an alternative form of money in which to calculate and preserve their own wealth.
It may be too soon to dismiss the dollar as an utterly debauched currency. It still is the most used for international transactions and constitutes over 60% of other countries' official foreign-exchange reserves. But the reputation of our nation's money is being severely compromised.
Funny how words normally used to address issues of morality come to the fore when judging the qualities of the dollar. Perhaps it's because the U.S. has long represented the virtues of democratic capitalism. To be "sound as a dollar" is to be deemed trustworthy, dependable, and in good working condition.
It used to mean all that, anyway. But as the dollar is increasingly perceived as the default mechanism for out-of-control government spending, its role as a reliable standard of value is destined to fade. Who wants to accumulate assets denominated in a shrinking unit of account? Excess government spending leads to inflation, and inflation plays dollar savers for patsies—both at home and abroad.
A return to sound financial principles in Washington, D.C., would signal that America still believes it can restore the integrity of the dollar and provide leadership for the global economy. But for all the talk from the Obama administration about the need to exert fiscal discipline—the president's 10-year federal budget is subtitled "A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America's Promise"—the projected budget numbers anticipate a permanent pattern of deficit spending and vastly higher levels of outstanding federal debt.
Even with the optimistic economic assumptions implicit in the Obama administration's budget, it's a mathematical impossibility to reduce debt if you continue to spend more than you take in. Mr. Obama promises to lower the deficit from its current 9.9% of gross domestic product to an average 4.8% of GDP for the years 2010-2014, and an average 4% of GDP for the years 2015-2019. All of this presupposes no unforeseen expenditures such as a second "stimulus" package or additional costs related to health-care reform. But even if the deficit shrinks as a percentage of GDP, it's still a deficit. It adds to the amount of our nation's outstanding indebtedness, which reflects the cumulative total of annual budget deficits.
By the end of 2019, according to the administration's budget numbers, our federal debt will reach $23.3 trillion—as compared to $11.9 trillion today. To put it in perspective: U.S. federal debt was equal to 61.4% of GDP in 1999; it grew to 70.2% of GDP in 2008 (under the Bush administration); it will climb to an estimated 90.4% this year and touch the 100% mark in 2011, after which the projected federal debt will continue to equal or exceed our nation's entire annual economic output through 2019.
The U.S. is thus slated to enter the ranks of those countries—Zimbabwe, Japan, Lebanon, Singapore, Jamaica, Italy—with the highest government debt-to-GDP ratio (which measures the debt burden against a nation's capacity to generate sufficient wealth to repay its creditors). In 2008, the U.S. ranked 23rd on the list—crossing the 100% threshold vaults our nation into seventh place.
If you were a foreign government, would you want to increase your holdings of Treasury securities knowing the U.S. government has no plans to balance its budget during the next decade, let alone achieve a surplus?
In the European Union, countries wishing to adopt the euro must first limit government debt to 60% of GDP. It's the reference criterion for demonstrating "soundness and sustainability of public finances." Politicians find it all too tempting to print money—something the Europeans have understood since the days of the Weimar Republic—and excessive government borrowing poses a threat to monetary stability.
Valuable lessons can also be drawn from Japan's unsuccessful experiment with quantitative easing in the aftermath of its ruptured 1980s bubble economy. The Bank of Japan's desperate efforts to fight deflation through a zero-interest rate policy aimed at bailing out zombie companies, along with massive budget deficit spending, only contributed to a lost decade of stagnant growth. Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio escalated to more than 170% now from 65% in 1990. Over the same period, the yen's use as an international reserve currency—it clings to fourth place behind the dollar, euro and pound sterling—declined from comprising 10.2% of official foreign-exchange reserves to 3.3% today.
The U.S. has long served as the world's "indispensable nation" and the dollar's primary role in the global economy has likewise seemed to testify to American exceptionalism. But the passivity in Washington toward our dismal fiscal future, and its inevitable toll on U.S. economic influence, suggests that American global leadership is no longer a priority and that America's money cannot be trusted.
If money is a moral contract between government and its citizens, we are being violated. The rest of the world, meanwhile, simply wants to avoid being duped. That is why China and Russia—large holders of dollars—are angling to invent some new kind of global currency for denominating reserve assets. It's why oil-producing Gulf States are fretting over whether to continue pricing energy exports in depreciated dollars. It's why central banks around the world are dumping dollars in favor of alternative currencies, even as reduced global demand exacerbates the dollar's decline. Until the U.S. sends convincing signals that it believes in a strong dollar—mere rhetorical assertions ring hollow—the world has little reason to hold dollar-denominated securities.
Sadly, due to our fiscal quagmire, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates as a sop to attract foreign capital even if it hurts our domestic economy. Unfortunately, that's the price of having already succumbed to symbiotic fiscal and monetary policy. If we could forge a genuine commitment to private-sector economic growth by reducing taxes, and at the same time significantly cut future spending, it might be possible to turn things around. Under President Reagan in the 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker slashed inflation and strengthened the dollar by dramatically tightening credit. Though it was a painful process, the economy ultimately boomed.
Whether the U.S. can once more summon the resolve to address its problems is an open question. But the world's growing dollar disdain conveys a message: Issuing more promissory notes is not the way to renew America's promise.
It may be too soon to dismiss the dollar as an utterly debauched currency. It still is the most used for international transactions and constitutes over 60% of other countries' official foreign-exchange reserves. But the reputation of our nation's money is being severely compromised.
Funny how words normally used to address issues of morality come to the fore when judging the qualities of the dollar. Perhaps it's because the U.S. has long represented the virtues of democratic capitalism. To be "sound as a dollar" is to be deemed trustworthy, dependable, and in good working condition.
It used to mean all that, anyway. But as the dollar is increasingly perceived as the default mechanism for out-of-control government spending, its role as a reliable standard of value is destined to fade. Who wants to accumulate assets denominated in a shrinking unit of account? Excess government spending leads to inflation, and inflation plays dollar savers for patsies—both at home and abroad.
A return to sound financial principles in Washington, D.C., would signal that America still believes it can restore the integrity of the dollar and provide leadership for the global economy. But for all the talk from the Obama administration about the need to exert fiscal discipline—the president's 10-year federal budget is subtitled "A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America's Promise"—the projected budget numbers anticipate a permanent pattern of deficit spending and vastly higher levels of outstanding federal debt.
Even with the optimistic economic assumptions implicit in the Obama administration's budget, it's a mathematical impossibility to reduce debt if you continue to spend more than you take in. Mr. Obama promises to lower the deficit from its current 9.9% of gross domestic product to an average 4.8% of GDP for the years 2010-2014, and an average 4% of GDP for the years 2015-2019. All of this presupposes no unforeseen expenditures such as a second "stimulus" package or additional costs related to health-care reform. But even if the deficit shrinks as a percentage of GDP, it's still a deficit. It adds to the amount of our nation's outstanding indebtedness, which reflects the cumulative total of annual budget deficits.
By the end of 2019, according to the administration's budget numbers, our federal debt will reach $23.3 trillion—as compared to $11.9 trillion today. To put it in perspective: U.S. federal debt was equal to 61.4% of GDP in 1999; it grew to 70.2% of GDP in 2008 (under the Bush administration); it will climb to an estimated 90.4% this year and touch the 100% mark in 2011, after which the projected federal debt will continue to equal or exceed our nation's entire annual economic output through 2019.
The U.S. is thus slated to enter the ranks of those countries—Zimbabwe, Japan, Lebanon, Singapore, Jamaica, Italy—with the highest government debt-to-GDP ratio (which measures the debt burden against a nation's capacity to generate sufficient wealth to repay its creditors). In 2008, the U.S. ranked 23rd on the list—crossing the 100% threshold vaults our nation into seventh place.
If you were a foreign government, would you want to increase your holdings of Treasury securities knowing the U.S. government has no plans to balance its budget during the next decade, let alone achieve a surplus?
In the European Union, countries wishing to adopt the euro must first limit government debt to 60% of GDP. It's the reference criterion for demonstrating "soundness and sustainability of public finances." Politicians find it all too tempting to print money—something the Europeans have understood since the days of the Weimar Republic—and excessive government borrowing poses a threat to monetary stability.
Valuable lessons can also be drawn from Japan's unsuccessful experiment with quantitative easing in the aftermath of its ruptured 1980s bubble economy. The Bank of Japan's desperate efforts to fight deflation through a zero-interest rate policy aimed at bailing out zombie companies, along with massive budget deficit spending, only contributed to a lost decade of stagnant growth. Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio escalated to more than 170% now from 65% in 1990. Over the same period, the yen's use as an international reserve currency—it clings to fourth place behind the dollar, euro and pound sterling—declined from comprising 10.2% of official foreign-exchange reserves to 3.3% today.
The U.S. has long served as the world's "indispensable nation" and the dollar's primary role in the global economy has likewise seemed to testify to American exceptionalism. But the passivity in Washington toward our dismal fiscal future, and its inevitable toll on U.S. economic influence, suggests that American global leadership is no longer a priority and that America's money cannot be trusted.
If money is a moral contract between government and its citizens, we are being violated. The rest of the world, meanwhile, simply wants to avoid being duped. That is why China and Russia—large holders of dollars—are angling to invent some new kind of global currency for denominating reserve assets. It's why oil-producing Gulf States are fretting over whether to continue pricing energy exports in depreciated dollars. It's why central banks around the world are dumping dollars in favor of alternative currencies, even as reduced global demand exacerbates the dollar's decline. Until the U.S. sends convincing signals that it believes in a strong dollar—mere rhetorical assertions ring hollow—the world has little reason to hold dollar-denominated securities.
Sadly, due to our fiscal quagmire, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates as a sop to attract foreign capital even if it hurts our domestic economy. Unfortunately, that's the price of having already succumbed to symbiotic fiscal and monetary policy. If we could forge a genuine commitment to private-sector economic growth by reducing taxes, and at the same time significantly cut future spending, it might be possible to turn things around. Under President Reagan in the 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker slashed inflation and strengthened the dollar by dramatically tightening credit. Though it was a painful process, the economy ultimately boomed.
Whether the U.S. can once more summon the resolve to address its problems is an open question. But the world's growing dollar disdain conveys a message: Issuing more promissory notes is not the way to renew America's promise.
We're Not Japan by David Serchuk
Despite the massive rally domestic markets have enjoyed since bottoming out on March 9--the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 56%--there are still some disturbing signs that all is not well with the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate is at 9.8%, with few signs of turning around. The recession, at 22 months, is the longest such contraction in 70 years.
With every piece of seemingly good news there is more bad news. Housing may show some signs of stabilizing but that could merely be a function of the government backstopping virtually the entire housing market on its own. Corporate profits are up, but that's from laying people off and cutting back, rather than making more sales. Gold has proven a safe-haven, but it's because the dollar has been so devalued. Finally, some very smart people are saying that this recovery might not be "V" shaped after all, but "W" shaped, meaning we are just halfway through the roller coaster and the second steep decline is coiled and ready to strike.
The obvious fear is that the U.S. might not simply will itself out of this recession, as hoped. And while our recession is already one for the record books there is no law saying it can't go on longer, much longer. Just look at Japan.
Over the past 20 years, as U.S. markets rose 194%, Tokyo stagnated. The Nikkei 225 index is down 72% in that time. Over the past decade it's fallen 44%. The Land of the Falling Yen has finally started to show some life in 2009, with its markets up 39% since bottoming on March 9, but this recent burst of friskiness can't erase the damage wrought.
Among other things, Japan has been bedeviled over the past two decades by deflation, one of the two worrying scenarios the U.S. faces as it tries to get out of the weeds. The other, of course, is inflation--which seems like a reasonable assumption given the hundreds of billions of dollars the U.S. mint has churned out in order to pay for one stimulus package after another.
While inflation surely seems a terrifying fate--evoking memories of a sweatered Jimmy Carter and bell-bottoms--deflation is no picnic either. It means as prices fall scared consumers hold off on spending, waiting for them to fall still more, creating a negative spiral that can prove very hard to break. Japan, it can be argued, still hasn't entirely freed itself. Our own Great Depression was also so persistent due to deflation, as prices for many assets, including commodities, fell.
If there is one silver lining from Japan's ongoing deflationary debacle, it's that it gave the U.S. the ability to learn from it. In 2002 the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, wrote a discussion paper called "Preventing Deflation: Lessons From Japan's Experiences in the 1990s" that detail what should have been done. Perhaps the major lesson the Fed's governors drew was that as Japan confronted its own collapse in asset prices its monetary policy didn't loosen nearly enough. As our own inflationary spending shows, this was not lost on the U.S.
Our own industry observers point to a few other reasons as to why a stagnating U.S. differs in key ways from its neighbor to the East.
Gerard Klingman, the head of investment house Klingman & Associates, says that unlike Japan our markets, central banks and regulators acted in a much more unified and speedy way than Japan did in its first lost decade. Like Japan, however, Klingman sees our high deficits and ongoing taxes will continue to drag growth into the coming decade. "The 'new normal' will be 2-3% growth and 5-8% unemployment for the U.S. economy," he says. "Not a disaster but nothing to cheer about." Japan's current unemployment rate is 5.5%.
Bill Singer, shareholder at the law firm Stark and Stark, and a longtime securities attorney, says another key difference between the U.S. and Japan is demographics. The U.S. is younger and more diverse, and has a more dynamic political culture. "We do not have a birthrate so perilously low that we are not able to replenish our labor force," he says. As for Japan itself Singer is fairly bearish, as the nation struggles with the exodus of its young, ambitious workers, remains resource poor and faces increased competition from China, Hong Kong and the like as a finance center.
Marc Lowlicht, the head of the wealth management division at Further Lane Asset Management, also says that although Japan's suffered through two poor decades--for many of the reasons above--this might partly be reversion to the mean. "Japan had unheard of growth through the '60s at the rate of 10%, slowing to a still respectable number of 5% through the '70s and 4% through the '90s," he says. "We did not experience this kind of growth and therefore didn't have the type of excess investment that was made across many sectors with the exception of real estate."
Still, not everyone is quite so down on Japan. The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's growth to be at 1.7% in 2010, while the U.S. will eke out 1.5%. And some savvy investors see opportunity there, partly because prices had been beaten down so long.
Jean-Marie Eveillard, senior adviser of First Eagle Funds, likes various industrial companies in Japan, including Fanuc Limited and SMC Corp. The latter competed directly with American firm Parker Hannifin. He also likes pharma firms Astellas Pharma and Ono Pharmaceutical.
Eveillard says he likes Japanese firms because their managers tend to think longer term than just the next quarter, unlike most domestic names. You'd hope so, considering their nation has been in the doldrums for 20 years. But nothing lasts forever.
With every piece of seemingly good news there is more bad news. Housing may show some signs of stabilizing but that could merely be a function of the government backstopping virtually the entire housing market on its own. Corporate profits are up, but that's from laying people off and cutting back, rather than making more sales. Gold has proven a safe-haven, but it's because the dollar has been so devalued. Finally, some very smart people are saying that this recovery might not be "V" shaped after all, but "W" shaped, meaning we are just halfway through the roller coaster and the second steep decline is coiled and ready to strike.
The obvious fear is that the U.S. might not simply will itself out of this recession, as hoped. And while our recession is already one for the record books there is no law saying it can't go on longer, much longer. Just look at Japan.
Over the past 20 years, as U.S. markets rose 194%, Tokyo stagnated. The Nikkei 225 index is down 72% in that time. Over the past decade it's fallen 44%. The Land of the Falling Yen has finally started to show some life in 2009, with its markets up 39% since bottoming on March 9, but this recent burst of friskiness can't erase the damage wrought.
Among other things, Japan has been bedeviled over the past two decades by deflation, one of the two worrying scenarios the U.S. faces as it tries to get out of the weeds. The other, of course, is inflation--which seems like a reasonable assumption given the hundreds of billions of dollars the U.S. mint has churned out in order to pay for one stimulus package after another.
While inflation surely seems a terrifying fate--evoking memories of a sweatered Jimmy Carter and bell-bottoms--deflation is no picnic either. It means as prices fall scared consumers hold off on spending, waiting for them to fall still more, creating a negative spiral that can prove very hard to break. Japan, it can be argued, still hasn't entirely freed itself. Our own Great Depression was also so persistent due to deflation, as prices for many assets, including commodities, fell.
If there is one silver lining from Japan's ongoing deflationary debacle, it's that it gave the U.S. the ability to learn from it. In 2002 the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, wrote a discussion paper called "Preventing Deflation: Lessons From Japan's Experiences in the 1990s" that detail what should have been done. Perhaps the major lesson the Fed's governors drew was that as Japan confronted its own collapse in asset prices its monetary policy didn't loosen nearly enough. As our own inflationary spending shows, this was not lost on the U.S.
Our own industry observers point to a few other reasons as to why a stagnating U.S. differs in key ways from its neighbor to the East.
Gerard Klingman, the head of investment house Klingman & Associates, says that unlike Japan our markets, central banks and regulators acted in a much more unified and speedy way than Japan did in its first lost decade. Like Japan, however, Klingman sees our high deficits and ongoing taxes will continue to drag growth into the coming decade. "The 'new normal' will be 2-3% growth and 5-8% unemployment for the U.S. economy," he says. "Not a disaster but nothing to cheer about." Japan's current unemployment rate is 5.5%.
Bill Singer, shareholder at the law firm Stark and Stark, and a longtime securities attorney, says another key difference between the U.S. and Japan is demographics. The U.S. is younger and more diverse, and has a more dynamic political culture. "We do not have a birthrate so perilously low that we are not able to replenish our labor force," he says. As for Japan itself Singer is fairly bearish, as the nation struggles with the exodus of its young, ambitious workers, remains resource poor and faces increased competition from China, Hong Kong and the like as a finance center.
Marc Lowlicht, the head of the wealth management division at Further Lane Asset Management, also says that although Japan's suffered through two poor decades--for many of the reasons above--this might partly be reversion to the mean. "Japan had unheard of growth through the '60s at the rate of 10%, slowing to a still respectable number of 5% through the '70s and 4% through the '90s," he says. "We did not experience this kind of growth and therefore didn't have the type of excess investment that was made across many sectors with the exception of real estate."
Still, not everyone is quite so down on Japan. The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's growth to be at 1.7% in 2010, while the U.S. will eke out 1.5%. And some savvy investors see opportunity there, partly because prices had been beaten down so long.
Jean-Marie Eveillard, senior adviser of First Eagle Funds, likes various industrial companies in Japan, including Fanuc Limited and SMC Corp. The latter competed directly with American firm Parker Hannifin. He also likes pharma firms Astellas Pharma and Ono Pharmaceutical.
Eveillard says he likes Japanese firms because their managers tend to think longer term than just the next quarter, unlike most domestic names. You'd hope so, considering their nation has been in the doldrums for 20 years. But nothing lasts forever.
Cavalry Officer, Pakistani Army: Perspective on Pakistani GHQ Attack by Agha H. Amin (Retired)
The attack on Pakistani GHQ [General Headquarters] raises more serious questions about Pakistan Army’s military effectiveness and potency than answers.
The most crucial and grave question is that the Pakistani military seems to have lost in a great degree its coercive value and moral deterrence. Something which is the foundation of any political system and on which all agree starting from Freud, Aristotle, Plato down to Marx, Lenin, Mao, and Khomeni.
Once General Musharraf decided to make a U turn under coercion by USA the army lost its moral credibility in the eyes of a large section of Pakistani populace, not the majority but a sizeable minority far more effective in tangible potency than a far larger minority.
The first most serious question is not from where the threat originated but how did a small minority of a few handpicked young men developed the resolution to attack the citadel of Pakistani military, the GHQ ? Its an intangible question but far more serious than whether these men had their organisational centre in Waziristan or Afghanistan.
The second serious question is the response to the attack.Or one may say the lack of response.
If ten or so armed men can terrorise and paralyse a half a million plus army’s headquarter for 22 plus hours the issue is strategic rather than tactical ! If ten civilians trained by irrational mullahs can penetrate a citadel hitherto considered impregnable and impenetrable and 1600 officers inside it are like chicken in a barbed wired coup at mercy of ten armed and highly motivated men then the situation is grave, not routine. A witness states that the attackers held some 4 to 6 officers from major to colonel rank hostages and also offered them their dry rations.This shows that the attackers wanted to deliver a message and did not want to inflict fatalities on the Pakistan Army.
In a nutshell the serious aspects of the issue are :--
1. The most serious threat to Pakistan is internal and not external.
2. The military has lost its strategic and coercive deterrent value.
3. That ten armed civilians penetrated a military headquarters guarded by an infantry battalion and a similar number of DSG soldiers [Defense Security Guards] is a serious strategic imbalance.
4. That 6 plus armed men were roaming the GHQ for many hours and had the opportunity to kill many generals, an opportunity that they for some mysterious reasons chose not to exercise is a cause of grave strategic concern.
5. The fact that the perimeter guarding battalion 10 Punjab although it killed some four intruders failed to hold the few attackers from penetrating the GHQ is a grave matter.
6. The fact that the battalion plus DSG soldiers although armed with G 3 and SMG rifles just bolted away is a grave matter.
7. The fact that it took more than 18 hours and the fact that SSG troops had to be brought from some 70 miles away to redeem the situation is ironic par excellence.
8. The fact that Pakistan’s enemies both state and non state are so ineffective still is the only consoling part of the issue.
Here is a case of a military machine :--
1. Fighting a civil war with serious internal fractures.
2. A military machine which has lost a great degree of its coercive value.
3. Lack of initiative in the officer rank and lack of forethought in not allowing the some 1600 officers in GHQ not to carry weapons.
4. The primacy of non state actors in Pakistan.
Sad is the story. Hilarious are the praises being heaped on the military’s response. Where is the honour and dignity of danger in overcoming six well motivated irregulars by a commando force outnumbering them by 100 to 1. This is not a criticism. I am not a paid journalist. This is a call for reflection .Serious reflection and serious inner thinking that may be the spur to serious reorganisation in the Pakistani military. The enemy is not in Waziristan or Afghanistan. The enemy is our own damn inefficiency and complacency. It merits serious thinking at all plains, tactical, operational and strategic.
The most crucial and grave question is that the Pakistani military seems to have lost in a great degree its coercive value and moral deterrence. Something which is the foundation of any political system and on which all agree starting from Freud, Aristotle, Plato down to Marx, Lenin, Mao, and Khomeni.
Once General Musharraf decided to make a U turn under coercion by USA the army lost its moral credibility in the eyes of a large section of Pakistani populace, not the majority but a sizeable minority far more effective in tangible potency than a far larger minority.
The first most serious question is not from where the threat originated but how did a small minority of a few handpicked young men developed the resolution to attack the citadel of Pakistani military, the GHQ ? Its an intangible question but far more serious than whether these men had their organisational centre in Waziristan or Afghanistan.
The second serious question is the response to the attack.Or one may say the lack of response.
If ten or so armed men can terrorise and paralyse a half a million plus army’s headquarter for 22 plus hours the issue is strategic rather than tactical ! If ten civilians trained by irrational mullahs can penetrate a citadel hitherto considered impregnable and impenetrable and 1600 officers inside it are like chicken in a barbed wired coup at mercy of ten armed and highly motivated men then the situation is grave, not routine. A witness states that the attackers held some 4 to 6 officers from major to colonel rank hostages and also offered them their dry rations.This shows that the attackers wanted to deliver a message and did not want to inflict fatalities on the Pakistan Army.
In a nutshell the serious aspects of the issue are :--
1. The most serious threat to Pakistan is internal and not external.
2. The military has lost its strategic and coercive deterrent value.
3. That ten armed civilians penetrated a military headquarters guarded by an infantry battalion and a similar number of DSG soldiers [Defense Security Guards] is a serious strategic imbalance.
4. That 6 plus armed men were roaming the GHQ for many hours and had the opportunity to kill many generals, an opportunity that they for some mysterious reasons chose not to exercise is a cause of grave strategic concern.
5. The fact that the perimeter guarding battalion 10 Punjab although it killed some four intruders failed to hold the few attackers from penetrating the GHQ is a grave matter.
6. The fact that the battalion plus DSG soldiers although armed with G 3 and SMG rifles just bolted away is a grave matter.
7. The fact that it took more than 18 hours and the fact that SSG troops had to be brought from some 70 miles away to redeem the situation is ironic par excellence.
8. The fact that Pakistan’s enemies both state and non state are so ineffective still is the only consoling part of the issue.
Here is a case of a military machine :--
1. Fighting a civil war with serious internal fractures.
2. A military machine which has lost a great degree of its coercive value.
3. Lack of initiative in the officer rank and lack of forethought in not allowing the some 1600 officers in GHQ not to carry weapons.
4. The primacy of non state actors in Pakistan.
Sad is the story. Hilarious are the praises being heaped on the military’s response. Where is the honour and dignity of danger in overcoming six well motivated irregulars by a commando force outnumbering them by 100 to 1. This is not a criticism. I am not a paid journalist. This is a call for reflection .Serious reflection and serious inner thinking that may be the spur to serious reorganisation in the Pakistani military. The enemy is not in Waziristan or Afghanistan. The enemy is our own damn inefficiency and complacency. It merits serious thinking at all plains, tactical, operational and strategic.
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