The Taliban’s “AfPak” Strategy: A Jihadi Preemptive War by Walid Phares

As the U.S. administration and its allies are devising a new strategy for the next steps in Afghanistan, the jihadists have already begun their next move — but this time it’s inside Pakistan. As I’ve written over the past few months, we need to look at Afghanistan, Pakistan and India as one regional battlefield where the “other side” is coordinating strategically, acting methodically and for sure beating the international coalition in speed. If Washington and its allies fail to see the big picture in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, which unfortunately may be the case now, the rapidly deteriorating situation will soon exceed the northwestern provinces of Pakistan to spill over to both Afghanistan and India, if not beyond. That’s how I suggest “reading” the recent worrisome leaps achieved by the Taliban from the SWAT valley into the neighboring district of Buner. So what’s the story and why should we consider it as a crossing of the red lines?

For over two years both the past government of General Musharraf and the current democratically elected government of President Asif Ali Zardari have been advised to “engage” the Taliban, or rather what they perceived as “reconcilable” leaders of the Jihadi militia in control of large areas in Waziristan and the adjacent districts. Despite the fact that the Taliban protects Al Qaeda (openly), obstruct the army from bringing legal order along the borders with Afghanistan, controls training camps for international terrorists, wages attacks against security forces and have been involved in car bombs, suicide attacks and assassinations for years now, advice was given to high authorities in Islamabad (both from inside and outside the country) that “accommodating” some of the Taliban’s basic requirements will bring stability, at least for a while. Musharraf, whose intelligence services had kept good relations and friendships with the Jihadists of “AfPak” (Afghanistan and Pakistan combined), attempted to calm down some of the radical war lords even though he accused the Taliban at large of attempting to kill him and “Talibanize” the country. This dual and contradictive approach between shouting at them and engaging them at the same time allowed the jihadi militias to survive across Waziristan and other locations between 2001 and 2008.

The missing link has always been the failure in winning the war of ideas against the radical networks. As long as the jihadi madrassas are operational, droves of “graduates” enlarge the ranks of the Taliban and their other associates such as Laskar Taibah (accused of masterminding the Mumbai attacks), Jaish e Muhammed and other armed Islamist factions. In short, the strength of the Jihadi machine in Pakistan today is a direct result of the non-action by the Musharraf government against the network, particularly along the western borders for eight years.

The reasons for this restraint are numerous and aren’t all the product of presidential inaction. Rather they are embedded in an international consensus not to “touch” the ideology of the radicals. That is an overarching problem hovering over many other areas of crises including Iraq, the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and even within Western countries. This is another discussion.

With the election of a new president of Pakistan, the widower of the late Benazir Bhutto assassinated by the Taliban, and the formation of a new cabinet dominated by the secular “Party of the People,” conventional wisdom would project that Islamabad would mobilize wider and stronger against the creeping militias. Although during the election campaign and for the first few months of its tenure government figures blasted the “extremists” and pledged for shutting down the ideological madrassas across the country, the “engagement policy” persisted and ironically went farther than under Musharraf. Over the past few months, Pakistan’s government authorized governors in the Northwest part of the country to sign agreements with the leaders of the “Sharia Movement” in the Swat valley, a Jihadi front, to apply their interpretation of religious laws. The founder of the movement, Sufi Mohammad accepted the terms of the settlement with Islamabad. But his son in law Maulana Qazi Fazlullah the chief of the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi organization (TNSM), who since 2007 has deployed his 5,000 militiamen in 60 villages forming a “parallel emirate,” is now on the march to expand Taliban influence beyond the “authorized” district. In short, the cohort of jihadists is not stopping, not reconciling, not de-radicalizing but seeking to eventually reach the capital.

First in Waziristan, then as of last year in Swat, and now seizing the district of Buner, the Taliban are conquering Pakistani land. Their technique is simple: Give us Sharia implementation or endure terror. Authorities have been choosing the morphine option: let them apply Sharia if they seize fire. But as soon as an area is “granted” to the jihadists, a new “jihad” begins towards the adjacent district. The “forced Sharia” gives the Taliban more than just catechism: full control, broadcast, courts, training facilities, and money. It just cedes territory and people to a highly ideological force. Their Sharia-based “Talibanization” grants them harsh show of severity and intimidation: girls and women punished, opponents eliminated, civil society repressed, a copycat of pre-2001 Afghanistan.

But the strategic consequences of the last “offensives” inside Pakistan are boundless. By reaching a distance of 70 miles or so of the capital the Taliban are putting the government under their direct menace. Pushes elsewhere are expected southbound and northeast bound. The army is deploying around public buildings; that is a bad sign. I’d also project a Jihadi push along the Kashmir borders with India. The hydra is expanding gradually, preparing for a massive squeeze.

We should be concerned about two titanic effects on international security: Obviously, the nukes of Pakistan are on the minds of the Al Qaeda leadership, hidden comfortably in the belly of the Taliban. But also the US-led coming campaign in Afghanistan. The Taliban are attempting to change the landscape inside Pakistan and along its northwestern borders so that when the new push begins in Afghanistan, the Taliban would already have a deep hinterland east of the borders and so that the Pakistani Army busy is protecting the government, not in encircling the jihadists. The war room of the terror forces has begun fighting America’s new terrorism strategy before the latter starts. I can only characterize it as a “jihadi preemptive war.”

Pentagon: Insurgent attacks likely to rise in Iraq by Lara Jakes

The Pentagon's top Middle East adviser said Wednesday insurgent attacks in Iraq will probably increase as U.S. forces start to leave, but there's no plan now to delay troop departures.

Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Colin Kahl told The Associated Press that the military will continue to watch whether increased violence may push back deadlines for U.S. troop withdrawals ordered by President Barack Obama.

"Are we likely to see the ebb and flow of violence as our posture changes, and as the enemy tries to probe the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces, or demonstrate that they're still relevant? Yes," Kahl said during a 30-minute interview at the Pentagon. "I think we are likely to see that. But I don't know that we're anticipating a substantial increase."

He noted that security in Iraq has "dramatically improved" over the last two years and that sectarian violence that threatened a civil war earlier during the U.S. occupation is unlikely to re-emerge.

Earlier Wednesday, a suicide bomber killed at least five people at a Sunni mosque north of Baghdad. A police official said the attacker was mingling with worshippers when he detonated a belt packed with explosives. The blast also injured at least 20 people.

Kahl maintained that any decisions about delaying troop withdrawals ultimately will be made — and must be specifically requested — by the Iraqi government. A Jan. 1 security agreement requires all U.S. troops to be out of Iraq by the end of 2011. It also requires that combat soldiers no longer live in major Iraqi cities by June 30.

Additionally, Obama in February said the Pentagon will withdraw all but 35,000 to 50,000 troops from Iraq by the end of August 2010. Those left will focus mainly on countering insurgents and training Iraqi military and police forces.

Kahl also said that the Obama administration was watching security in Iraq to see if any further changes in troop levels might be necessary if violence were to increase dramatically over the next two years.

Violence is down sharply around most of Iraq. Even the area surrounding the site of Wednesday's suicide bombing has been relatively calm, although it is a volatile patchwork of Sunni and Shiite sectors.

However, recent bombings and other attacks have prompted top U.S. commanders to reconsider the June 30 deadline in at least two major Iraq cities — Mosul and Baqouba. The Iraqi government is expected to decide soon whether to ask U.S. troops to remain in those cities, but Kahl did not know exactly when that might happen.

The State Of The iPhone Is Strong — Very Strong by MG Siegler

The major companies that announced their earnings yesterday, two of them, AT&T and Apple, beat Wall Street estimates largely thanks to a single product: The iPhone. We’re approaching the two year birthday of the device, and it still remains one of the hottest items out there. Ladies and gentleman, the state of the iPhone is strong.

Yes, Apple actually sold fewer iPhones this quarter than the previous two quarters, but that was coming off of the always-hot holiday shopping quarter, and the one before that was when the iPhone 3G was still relatively new on the scene. All told, Apple has sold 21 million iPhones since its launch. Perhaps just a drop in the bucket compared to overall Nokia sales, but remember, Apple was not in the mobile business at all before 2007. And aside from just sales figures, in the past two years, it has revolutionized the industry. That is, of course, a cliche. But in this case, it’s true.

People can downplay the actual number of iPhones in circulation all they want — the fact of the matter is that it has changed things. While there were some third-party mobile app developers before Apple’s App Store, they received almost no attention, and as such, it wasn’t really a viable business. Now, everyone and their mother is flocking to develop for the App Store. And every major mobile player is rushing to make their own app stores. But Apple’s already has over 35,000 apps — and in a few short hours, there will have been one billion apps downloaded in just 9 months.

Think about that for a second: One billion apps downloaded. There are currently 37 million iPhones and iPod touches combined. Certainly, there have been a lot less than that over various stages in the last nine months, but just take that 37 million number. That means that every single one of those devices has had an average of 27 apps downloaded to it. 27 apps — that do everything from games to music to movie times to fetching me a taxi.

I remember the phone I had before the iPhone, fondly: Motorola’s RAZR. It had zero third-party apps, and the most exciting thing it could do was take a grainy picture. That was just two years ago.

Look, Apple’s iPhone platform is not perfect. The app approval process, to put it lightly, sucks. There are apps getting rejected for questionable reasons, that are forced to wait weeks to just be reviewed again. And then there are other apps which feature outrageous things, which get accepted without the slightest peep. Apple needs to revamp this system.

And the network is far from perfect as well. AT&T seems to have a failure rate that is unacceptable to a lot of people. Some have gotten rid of their iPhones just to ditch AT&T. But the fact of the matter is, that iPhone is simply the best all-in-one device that I’ve ever owned. I cannot imagine my life without it now. I would be lost — sometimes literally — without it. I say that because I know that of the 21 million iPhone owners out there — there are a great deal who feel the exact same way. That may be annoying, and may even sound pretentious to those who don’t own an iPhone — but I’m giving you my honest take as someone who has owned and/or tried a lot of the so-called “smartphones” out there. I have a G1. I have a Nokia N95. I’ve used a number of Blackberry devices. None compare. And I think for a lot of the other devices, it actually speaks less to the iPhone itself and more to the shit products that the other mobile companies have gotten away with putting on the market for so long.

And thanks in no small part to the iPhone, that could be about to change. Google’s Android platform was long seen as the next big thing, but so far, the only phone to run it, the G1, is junk. That should, hopefully change before the end of this year when new Android phones hit the market. But before then, the first real challenger should be coming — perhaps next month — with the Palm Pre. I’ve known a few people who have used the Pre a bit, and the consensus seems to be that it is the first true competitor, in terms of experience (both hardware and software), to the iPhone.

But it has some major handicaps — ones that I’ve already mentioned: 21 million, 35,000, and 1 billion. The iPhone has established itself as the standard that all mobile platforms now aspire to be. And with so much developer mindshare tied up in the platform, it will be hard for any other to come along and compete. The Pre, simply put, has to actually be better than the iPhone, if it wants to stand a chance.

For a while, it seemed like that would be the case. When the Pre was first unveiled, major hype immediately began. It had all the features the iPhone didn’t. But Apple isn’t stupid. It didn’t rush out with a buggy software update to match all the features. Instead, it sat back, worked, and then dropped the iPhone 3.0 software bomb. Not only does its update coming this summer include many of the features the Pre was touting as advantages, but it has a lot more that the Pre doesn’t offer.

And the Trojan Horse, that not a lot of people are talking about yet, is that the 3.0 software’s micro-payments system (In-App Purchases) could take the iPhone to an even higher level in terms of developer commitment. It could represent a whole new level of money for them — and Apple.

Oh yeah, and there is likely new iPhone hardware coming shortly as well.

Of course, there are still two major differentiating factors that the Pre will offer: a physical keyboard and background applications.

To me, the physical keyboard argument is a short-term one. Yes, a lot of people right now insist on having a physical keyboard — something which Apple has refused to provide. But Apple is doing that because it knows that they are not in the cards for the future of mobile devices. In the not-too-distant future, there will be screens with full haptic feedback that let you orient your hands on them. Physical keyboards will be seen for what they are: A huge waste of space.

The larger issue is background applications. Apple still refuses to run them (from third parties). You might think this is an obvious advantage for the Pre, but there are some major potential downsides. One is performance. How will the device run when multi-tasking? But the larger issue is battery life. I have a G1 that runs applications in the background. The battery life is a joke. If you think the iPhone has a poor battery, try using the G1 for a day. Or should I say, try using the G1 for about 3 hours. Good luck.

Some developers say that if an app is made correctly, it shouldn’t drain a battery to such an extent even while running in the background. They often cite older Nokia phones and the like with applications as examples. But those older phones ran applications that are nowhere near as advanced as we have now in the post-iPhone world. If applications can be optimized for battery life, no one told the developers on the Android platform.

And so, I have my doubts about the Pre’s main advantage, actually being an advantage at all. Again, Apple is a lot of things, but it is not stupid. If it thought allowing applications to run in the background was the best play in keeping customers happy, it would do it. Instead, it went through the painstaking process of completely redeveloping the Push Notification system to get it working. It seems to say something that now Palm has a similar service it has built into the Pre SDK, called Mojo Messaging Service.

Apple, with its still relatively small overall market share, is in a position of power right now in the US. If it had an iPhone that was $99 and could run on any major carrier, it would completely dominate this market. Instead, it’s doing things its way — just as it has always done. And that has worked for the iPod, and for iTunes, and has been working the past few years for the Mac. That also leaves a small opening for a nice Android device or the Pre to have a chance. But they can make no mistakes. Or they will be written in the Wikipedia entry for Apple next to the Zune.

World first for strange molecule by Victoria Gill

A molecule that until now existed only in theory has finally been made.

Known as a Rydberg molecule, it is formed through an elusive and extremely weak chemical bond between two atoms.

The new type of bonding, reported in Nature, occurs because one of the two atoms in the molecule has an electron very far from its nucleus or centre.

It reinforces fundamental quantum theories, developed by Nobel prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi, about how electrons behave and interact.

The Rydberg molecules in question were formed from two atoms of rubidium - one a Rydberg atom, and one a "normal" atom.

The movement and position of electrons within an atom can be described as orbiting around a central nucleus - with each shell of orbiting electrons further from the centre. “ It will be interesting to see what other fundamental physics we will be able to test with this approach ” Helen Fielding, UCL.

A Rydberg atom is special because it has one electron alone in an outermost orbit - very far, in atomic terms, from its nucleus.

Back in 1934 Enrico Fermi predicted that if another atom were to "find" that lone, wandering electron, it might interact with it.

"But Fermi never imagined that molecules could be formed," explained Chris Greene, the theoretical physicist from the University of Colorado who first predicted that Rydberg molecules could exist.

"We recognised, in our work in the 1970s and 80s, the potential for a sort of forcefield between a Rydberg atom and a groundstate [or normal] atom.

"It's only now that you can get systems so cold, that you can actually make them."

Right place, right time.

Unimaginably cold temperatures are needed to create the molecules, as Vera Bendkowsky from the University of Stuttgart who led the research explained.

"The nuclei of the atoms have to be at the correct distance from each other for the electron fields to find each other and interact," she said.

"We use an ultracold cloud of rubidium - as you cool it, the atoms in the gas move closer together."

At temperatures very close to absolute zero - minus 273C - this "critical distance" of about 100nm (nanometres - 1nm = one millionth of a millimetre) between the atoms is reached.

When one is a Rydberg atom, the two atoms form a Rydberg molecule. This 100nm gap is vast compared to ordinary molecules.

"The Rydberg electron resembles a sheepdog that keeps its flock together by roaming speedily to the outermost periphery of the flock, and nudging back towards the centre any member that might begin to drift away," said Professor Greene.

Pushing this electron out to its lonely periphery - and make a Rydberg atom - requires energy.

"We excite the atoms to the Rydberg stage with a laser," explained Dr Bendkowsky.

"If we have a gas at the critical density, with two atoms at the correct distance that are able to form the molecule, and we excite one to the Rydberg state, then we can form a molecule."

This ultracold experiment is also ultra-fast - the longest lived Rydberg molecule survives for just 18 microseconds.

But the fact that the molecules can be made and seen confirms long-held fundamental atomic theories.

"This is a very exciting set of experiments," added Helen Fielding, a physical chemist from University College London.

"It shows that this approach is feasible, and it will be interesting to see what other fundamental physics we'll be able to test with it."

Prize-winning ideas.

Professor Greene's prediction that Rydberg molecules could exist was inspired by another Nobel prize-winning piece of physics research.

When, in 1924 the Indian physicist Satyendra Nath Bose sent some theoretical calculations about particles to Albert Einstein, Einstein made a prediction.

He said that if a gas was cooled to a very low temperature, the atoms would all suddenly collapse into their "lowest possible energy state", so they would be almost frozen and behave in an identical and predictable way.

In a sense this is analagous to when a gas suddenly condenses into drops of liquid.

When scientists reached the goal of Bose-Einstein condensation, by cooling and trapping alkali atoms, Professor Greene realised that ultracold physics could be used to form molecules that simply would not exist in any other conditions.

Med Center Official Tried to Silence Vet by Bryant Jordan

The experience of 56 year-old Army veteran Tommie Canady at the Washington, D.C., Veterans Medical Center was not the only story members of the VA's Advisory Committee on Minority Veterans heard April 7 when they gathered at the facility for a town hall-type meeting.

Vets shared with the committee problems with paperwork and slowness in the processing of disability claims. One group offered up eight areas of concern to the committee, ranging from health care to homelessness, and urged the VA to become even more "vet-centric," to streamline its processes and to be more forward-thinking in delivering services to families.

But Canady's story -- allegations of racial discrimination and a claim that he was twice given an overdose of morphine by a nurse who continues to work at the hospital -- peaked the interest of a local radio reporter who, when he tried to interview Canady, was interrupted by a hospital official.

Gloria Hairston, a hospital public affairs officer, told reporter David Schultz he could not use the interview and told Canady he could not talk anymore. But when Canady insisted he would, Hairston returned with a pair of security guards and demanded Schultz turn over his recording equipment.

After a quick call to his editor back at WAMU 88.5, a local affiliate of National Public Radio, Schultz turned over the sound card to his recorder and left. It would be the next day before he got to complete his interview with Canady and two more days before he got his sound card back from the hospital.

Canady could not be reached for comment. But the hospital's strong-arm approach to halt the interview had a consequence it didn't intend -- it turned Canady's claims of racism and malpractice into a larger story and captured the interest of Paul Sullivan, a former VA project manager who monitored Gulf War, Afghanistan and Iraq War vets and who now heads up Veterans for Common Sense.

"I will tell you, under the surface there is some racism" within the VA, Sullivan told Military.com. "Now, whether or not it impacts the delivery of care I don't know the answer. I wish we had an answer."

It should be a matter of looking at the paperwork on disability claims, he said, comparing like injuries and getting a sense of whether there are discrepancies in who is awarded a disability, who is not, and whether race may be a factor.

But you can't do that, he said, because the VA does not ask disability applicants for information on race.

"The VA ... doesn't ask you to list your race on an application form [for a disability claim], so that it will be impossible to answer that question," Sullivan said.

There is a way to do it, but it would require matching VA records against those maintained by the Pentagon since the Gulf War, when the Defense Department began assigning "a flag" to denote a service member's ethnicity. But the VA, he believes, would not want to do that, as it did not want to when he and others "tried to sort by race" for Persian Gulf War.

"We got smacked down by political appointees. ... They said we'd be opening up a can of worms," Sullivan said. "We were ordered not to look into it."

VA spokeswoman Katie Roberts said that the VA collects race and ethnic data when vets are applying for health benefits or home loans, but does not collect it on applications for disabilities.

The absence of this data on disability claims was noted by VA's advisory committee on minorities in its July 2008 report, where it noted the general perception among minority veterans that they are not being provided equal services. But the committee is not able to address such perceptions because racial and ethnic data is not available, it reported, and recommended that the VA "establish uniform criteria" for collecting it.

Roberts also said the VA hospital in Washington will look into all claims or concerns brought up by veterans who came out to the town hall. And the VA Advisory Committee on Minorities will follow up and make its own report, she said.

A separate investigation is underway into Hairston's confiscating Schultz' reporting equipment, Roberts said.

Tidbit: US Tech Giants Head to Iraq

Executives from top US tech giants are visiting Iraq to help the nation find technocratic ways to rebuild Iraq. The companies will meet with the GoI officials and private groups to see how technology can help in fighting corruption to improving education and healthcare to better governance. First of a kind trip to Iraq by technocratic US tech giants.

Kurds, Arabs Maneuver Ahead of U.N. Report on N. Iraq by Ernesto Londoño

Kurdish and Arab politicians in northern Iraq are preparing for a potentially long and bruising fight over disputed areas as they await the release of U.N. reports expected to propose joint administration of Kirkuk and make a case for the annexation of some districts to the Kurdistan Regional Government.

In Kirkuk, the crown jewel of the 300-mile strip of disputed territories, Arab politicians announced over the weekend the creation of a political group that includes Sunni leaders who gained prominence in 2006 and 2007 when, with financial backing from the United States, they took up arms against the group al-Qaeda in Iraq in the western part of the country.

The Kurds, meanwhile, have been aggressively collecting signatures in the oil-rich city for a nonbinding petition with which they hope to demonstrate that the majority of Kirkuk's residents want the city annexed to the autonomous Kurdish regional government.

The much-anticipated release of the U.N. reports, expected this month, could open a new chapter in the visceral, decades-long dispute between Arabs and Kurds over Kirkuk and other key cities and villages in northern Iraq.

Many of the urban areas in the disputed territories were predominantly Kurdish until the 1970s, when Saddam Hussein razed hundreds of Kurdish villages, displacing thousands of people. He also provided incentives for Arabs in southern Iraq to move north.

Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurdish regional government -- which operates much like a sovereign nation and has its own armed force -- has worked aggressively to restore its influence in several areas that were formerly under Kurdish control. It has spent millions on social services and deployed its militia, the pesh merga, to parts of Nineveh, Diyala and Kirkuk, the three provinces that border the autonomous regional government.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other Arab leaders have accused Kurds of encroaching in areas that are under nominal control of the Baghdad government. Maliki in recent months deployed troops loyal to the central government to stem the influence of the Kurdish regional government.

The tension over Kirkuk and other disputed areas, which some Iraqi and U.S. officials believe could escalate into armed conflict, prompted the U.S. military in January to increase its troop level in Kirkuk from a battalion, roughly 900 troops, to a combat brigade of about 3,200 soldiers.

"The threat of civil war remains real, and this threat should not be minimized," said W. Andrew Terrill, a national security professor at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. "Kirkuk is often compared to Jerusalem, where different groups have exceptionally strong emotional attachments and the claims of rival groups are rarely seen as valid."

The debate over control is linked to the still-unresolved question of how Iraq will distribute its oil wealth. Complicating matters, it is coming to a head in a politically charged year during which missteps by candidates over their position on Kirkuk could amount to political suicide.

U.N. officials this week briefed Maliki, a Shiite; President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; and other senior Iraqi leaders on the reports. U.N. officials have refrained from discussing the reports publicly.

Iraqi analysts and politicians in northern Iraq who have discussed the issue with U.N. officials in recent weeks said in interviews that they expect the organization will outline a scenario by which Kirkuk could be administered jointly by the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government. Elsewhere, based on an analysis of the region's history, demographics and the outcome of the recent provincial election, the United Nations is expected to suggest that certain districts ought to be administered by the Kurdish regional government.

Hussein Ali Salih al-Juburi, a senior Arab political leader in Kirkuk, said local politicians decided to form the Iraqi Kirkuk Bloc to "strengthen the Arabs' position" on what he called "Kurdish intransigence." He said the group intends to deploy the paramilitary groups known as Awakening councils, or Sons of Iraq, to fight insurgent groups in villages in northern Iraq.

Kurdish politicians in Kirkuk say they won't accept any deal that prevents the Kurdish regional government from annexing the city.

"We shall accept a solution for Kirkuk worked out by the parties inside the city and oppose any solution imported from outside parties that are enemies to the Kurdish people's experiment," said Najat Hassan Karim, a senior Kurdish politician.

The security situation in Kirkuk, which saw little violence in the years after the invasion, has deteriorated in recent months. A suicide bomber killed 50 people at a restaurant in December. On Wednesday, another suicide bomber killed 11. Iraqi and U.S. officials fear insurgent groups could seize on the political and military stalemates to make a comeback in the region.

Tension between armed forces loyal to the Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional government nearly led to a shootout last fall in Khanaqin, a town in Diyala province. Conflict was narrowly averted by U.S. soldiers. Talib Mohamed Hassan, a Kurdish politician in Khanaqin, recently took visiting journalists to one of the villages razed during the 1970s. For Kurds, he said, these areas are hallowed ground.

"We don't call these disputed areas," he said, walking through chunks of cement where homes once stood. "We call these areas that were sliced off."

In Nineveh province, the recent provincial election left the council, formerly controlled by Kurds, solidly in the hands of Arabs. When the new council was seated this week, the Kurds walked out, saying they were not given a fair number of key positions.

Raid Jahid Fahmi, the leader of a committee appointed to ease tensions over Kirkuk, said a lasting solution seems unlikely in a politically charged year. National elections are expected in the winter.

"It's better to have a good solution in three years than a shaky one in one year," Fahmi said. "A durable solution might take some time. It is now proven that setting deadlines for complex political issues is not a good thing."

American officials fear the consequences of leaving the dispute unresolved as the U.S. military withdraws, and they have urged both sides to take the U.N. reports seriously.

"We need facilitators with teeth," a senior Iraqi official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer his candid assessment. "The U.N. has no teeth. Keeping this herd of cats together without American leadership won't happen."

But the United States has avoided taking sides.

"The United States cannot forcefully inject itself into this conflict without creating a massive number of new enemies in Iraq and worldwide," said Terrill, the professor. "I think that the United States has to contain the violence and encourage dialogue, but I do not think we can go beyond that without making things worse."

Programming Newbies Make Apps for iPhone by Ryan Kim

Lauren Bernsen, a 25-year-old Nordstrom jewelry manager, had never written a line of computer code - that is, until the iPhone came along.

Now the Palo Alto resident spends many nights bathed in the blue light of her computer screen creating her first iPhone application, a travel organizer program.

"I was seduced by my own idea and the iPhone platform, which made it less of an unattainable thing," Bernsen said.

The popular iPhone has inspired a wave of creativity among software developers, many of whom have aspirations of making a quick buck from the popular iPhone, 17 million units of which have been sold. But the device is also luring non-programmers, people like Bernsen who had never considered software development until now.

Some are learning Cocoa, Xcode and Objective-C, the tools and languages necessary for iPhone development, while others are looking for contract designers to get their apps made. The iPhone, perhaps more than any other device, has sparked the imagination of non-developers, who see in it an idea waiting to take shape.

"I have never seen a device take off like this that's found a community of developers and has caught people's imagination this way," said Erica Sadun, author of "The iPhone Developer's Cookbook."

Much of the interest has come from the success of Apple's App Store, an online marketplace for mobile applications that opened in July. It already boasts more than 30,000 apps that range from video games and e-books to productivity programs and silly gags. They are mostly available for free or a few dollars.

So far, nearly 1 billion apps have been downloaded. Some software developers have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars off of one application. The iPhone software development kit - which provides tools and resources for creating apps - has been downloaded 800,000 times.

To be sure, coding newcomers are a minority and face a steep challenge in the iPhone's crowded marketplace. But Sadun said she continues to see a number of novices joining various developer forums.

"The iPhone is the 'it' device, and I think people are excited about it," she said. "It's a flexible and powerful device that invites ideas and development for it."

During a ski trip last month, Bernsen came up with an idea to create an app for groups traveling together. The Silicon Valley resident had a number of developer friends who promised to help her. But when it came time to start coding, they flaked on her.

"I thought, 'I don't need anyone's help, I can do this on my own,' " she said.

Imple Opportunity

Chris Borrello, a network administrator in West Palm Beach, Fla., had always been intimidated by programming, despite his technical position. But the simplicity of the iPhone led him to jump into developing in October.

"The iPhone seemed like an opportunity for people like myself who had no idea about it," he said. "You could tell the apps were not all produced by experienced professional developers and surprisingly, a lot of (the apps) were catching on. I thought it would be ridiculous not to try it out."

He bought a number of books and started learning the basics of iPhone development. When he got laid off in December and couldn't find another job, Borrello made his new hobby a career. He said he's replaced his former salary with his iPhone income.

Troy Brant, a Stanford graduate student in computer science who helps teach an iPhone development course, said the iPhone has that attraction. He said he's had to turn away prospective students because they had no programming background. But tens of thousands of people have downloaded the class for free through Apple's iTunes U, a collection of college lectures online.

"When people see a desktop application, it makes them cringe rather than make them want to get involved somehow," Brant said. "The iPhone interface is in general very pleasing. ... It's a gateway where people feel open about programming for the platform."

Dea' People

Not everyone is bothering to learn programming. There's a growing contingent of "idea" people who are trying to get their iPhone concepts made. Freelance sites like Elance are stocked with job offers by entrepreneurs and dreamers hoping to put an app together.

Tim Robertson, publisher of MyMac.com, an online magazine for Mac enthusiasts, started with a simple idea: He wanted to be able to write large messages on his iPhone that people across a room could see. But without any programming skills, he went looking for a partner at the Macworld Expo in January.

Robertson connected with Dom Sagolla, a co-founder of the iPhoneDevCamp. Sagolla's company DollarApp built Big Words, which paid for itself several times over.

"The fact that I came up with an idea and now it's an actual product - it's amazing," Robertson said.

With so many developers converging on the iPhone opportunity, the prospects for most developers of making good money are dimming, especially for the inexperienced. Learning to code successfully is not an easy task.

But for many, it's not simply about making a buck. It's about getting an app on the hottest device around.

"I don't have aspirations of making a ton of money," Bernsen said. "I don't have to be dedicated to this 9-5. But it's a fun deviation from my normal job and a fun challenge."

The Obama Foreign Policy Doctrine by Michael Scherer

President Obama has an ability to issue coherent, Op-Ed-length answers during press conferences that is currently unmatched on the American political stage. Today, at a press conference in Trinidad, NBC's Chuck Todd asked Obama to describe the "Obama doctrine" for foreign policy. At first Obama joked that it would be up to the press to write the "definitive statement on Obamism." But then he said the following, which reads to me as just about the clearest, most succinct statement yet of Obama's diplomatic approach (with a little editing). Here is his answer:

[T]here are a couple of principles that I've tried to apply across the board: Number one, that the United States remains the most powerful, wealthiest nation on Earth, but we're only one nation, and that the problems that we confront, whether it's drug cartels, climate change, terrorism, you name it, can't be solved just by one country. And I think if you start with that approach, then you are inclined to listen and not just talk.

And so in all these meetings what I've said is, we have some very clear ideas in terms of where the international community should be moving; we have some very specific national interests, starting with safety and security that we have to attend to; but we recognize that other countries have good ideas, too, and we want to hear them. And the fact that a good idea comes from a small country like a Costa Rica should not somehow diminish the fact that it's a good idea. I think people appreciate that. So that's number one.

Number two, I think that -- I feel very strongly that when we are at our best, the United States represents a set of universal values and ideals -- the idea of democratic practices, the idea of freedom of speech and religion, the idea of a civil society where people are free to pursue their dreams and not be imposed upon constantly by their government. So we've got a set of ideas that I think have broad applicability. But what I also believe is that other countries have different cultures, different perspectives, and are coming out of different histories, and that we do our best to promote our ideals and our values by our example. (More after jump.)

And so if we are practicing what we preach and if we occasionally confess to having strayed from our values and our ideals, that strengthens our hand; that allows us to speak with greater moral force and clarity around these issues.

And again, I think people around the world appreciate that we're not suggesting we are holding ourselves to one set of standards and we're going to hold you to another set of standards; that we're not simply going to lecture you, but we're rather going to show through how we operate the benefits of these values and ideals.

And the -- as a consequence of listening, believing that there aren't junior partners and senior partners in the international stage, I don't think that we suddenly transform every foreign policy item that's on the agenda. I know that in each of these meetings the question has been, well, did you get something specific? What happened here? What happened there?

Countries are going to have interests, and changes in foreign policy approaches by my administration aren't suddenly going to make all those interests that may diverge from ours disappear. What it does mean, though, is, at the margins, they are more likely to want to cooperate than not cooperate. It means that where there is resistance to a particular set of policies that we're pursuing, that resistance may turn out just to be based on old preconceptions or ideological dogmas that, when they're cleared away, it turns out that we can actually solve a problem.

And so we're still going to have very tough negotiations on a whole host of issues. In Europe, people believe in our plan for Afghanistan, but their politics are still such that it's hard for leaders to want to send more troops into Afghanistan. That's not going to change because I'm popular in Europe or leaders think that I've been respectful towards them. On the other hand, by having established those better relations, it means that among the population there's more confidence that working with the United States is beneficial, and they are going to try to do more than they might otherwise have done.