This week saw two terror attacks that apparently came close to high-level officials: the Taliban suicide bombing at Bagram Air Force Base while Vice President Cheney was staying there, and the Tamil Tiger (LTTE) mortar attack on an aircraft carrying U.S. Ambassador Robert Blake, along with the Italian and German Ambassadors. In Afghanistan, the Taliban insist that they were targeting Cheney, while U.S. officials claim that the Taliban do not have the capability. In contrast, the LTTE insists that it was not targeting the international diplomats, but the Sri Lankan government claims that they were. It is unlikely that either attack expressly targeted the officials. But the difference in the claims about the attack illustrates the differences between the two conflicts and between pre-9/11 and post-9/11 terror.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban apparently claimed that Cheney was the target of the attack on Bagram. However, the Taliban had little notice of Cheney’s movements and suicide bombings take some time to prepare. Besides the logistics the bomber has to be completely prepared psychologically – at the same time, an indoctrinated bomber cannot be kept waiting, otherwise the bomber may have second thoughts. It is conceivable that the Taliban had a suicide bombing in the works and shifted it to Bagram when they learned that Cheney was there. But changing plans quickly increases the likelihood of being intercepted if the new plan takes the bombers to an area that has not been carefully reconnoitered. Also, the bomber made no effort (and really had no chance) of penetrating deeply into Bagram.
That the Taliban readily claimed that they were targeting Cheney shows how presenting the image of strength and the ability to hit the United States is essential to the Taliban and the broader Islamist cause.
In Sri Lanka the Sri Lankan government and two former Tamil Tigers who are now allied with the Sri Lankan government have insisted that the Tigers – who have a well-developed intelligence infrastructure and have carried out innumerable, high-level attacks – must have known about the movements of the international diplomats and intentionally targeted them. The Tigers formally claim that the government should have informed the Tigers about the movements of the diplomats.
The LTTE is a truly vicious terrorist group that has pioneered suicide bombings and fanatically prevented any reasonable settlement of Sri Lanka’s ongoing civil war. But they have also calibrated their violence when necessary. Despite long-standing U.S. support for the Sri Lankan government, the LTTE has specifically avoided targeting Americans (including not targeting U.S. military trainers in Sri Lanka.) Also, the LTTE’s one foray into international terrorism, the 1991 assassination of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, was a major strategic blunder turning India, the regional heavyweight, into an enemy. The LTTE’s strategic depth ought to be the Indian province of Tamil Nadu, home to over 50 million ethnic Tamils. While the LTTE has received support from sympathetic Indian Tamils in the past, India’s overall posture has made that more difficult.
This analysis, from a retired Indian army officer at the South Asia Analysis Group explains how the attack was in fact part the LTTE overall operational strategy and ceased the LTTE was contacted by a third party. In short, directly attacking U.S. officials would be a major departure from long-standing LTTE policy.
The Taliban are part of a global movement that is seeking to challenge the international order, whereas the Tigers seek portray themselves as an oppressed minority seeking their due. Interestingly, the targets responses are also opposite. The United States has played down Taliban capabilities. The Sri Lankan government, in turn, is portraying itself as the victim of a super-powerful terrorist organization and is seeking to enlist international aid against its enemy.
The LTTE is the old terrorism, where the violence, while terrible, was part of a political strategy and could be limited when it suited the terrorist’s purposes. The LTTE is also a hierarchical organization in which, ultimately, LTTE founder and leader Prabhakaran make the big decisions. That is, the LTTE’s terror is first limited by their desires – not their capabilities. With an international fundraising and propaganda network the LTTE unquestionably has the operatives, intelligence, and resources to undertake international terror attacks – they have chosen not to do so. In the case of the Taliban and other Islamist groups, the limitations are in the capabilities – not their desires. There is no question that the Taliban would have murdered Cheney had they been able to do so. For that matter, if they were able to, they would almost certainly use WMD against the United States. Thankfully their capacity to launch long distance attacks against far targets appears limited – for now.
The recent attacks by the Tigers and the Taliban – and the aftermath of these attacks, illustrate the opposite poles in terrorist strategies. No counter-terror strategy or accompanying information war strategy should ignore that paradigm.
Friday, March 02, 2007
Thursday, March 01, 2007
The Downward Spiral of Pakistan by Douglas Farah
It is difficult in the best of times to get good information from the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but my sources who visit the region regularly say the situation is even worse than the dire situation already written about in numerous publications.
The question is rapidly becoming whether the forced U.S. marriage with Musharraf has reached is useful end, given his constant and not so private dalliance with the Taliban. I would argue it has, but the divorce is likely to be messy.
It seems that Masharraf’s perception is that India is his main enemy and the Afghan government, the United States and NATO are heavily tilted toward his enemy. So he has reached out to the Taliban on several fronts. In fact, the ties were never really cut. ISI had a role in protecting the Taliban leadership during the U.S.-led occupation, but were not allowed to help al Qaeda, at least not overtly.
One of the more interesting accounts is in the Asia Times, describing a more or less formal alliance with the Taliban while the Taliban separates itself from al Qaeda. Sources in the region say it is clear that some sort of deal has been struck, broader than just the publicly-acknowledged truce in some of the territories.
Given the relatively lame duck status of the Bush administration and the clear understanding that Iran is going to suck up all the remaining policy oxygen, Musharraf can host VP Cheney, promise whatever needs to be promised and be relatively sure he will not be held accountable in a meaningful way. The arrest of Mullah Obaidullah Akhund may be a bone to throw. He has been captured and freed before. My guess is that, in a few months, the whereabouts of the mullah will be unknown.
Musharraf has his reasons for tolerating or even supporting the Taliban, especially if they can somehow unentangle themselves from al Qaeda’s direct presence. Pakistan can keep Kabul constantly on the defensive, control a friendly border force and lessen India’s influence in the region.
The geopolitics may make sense from Musharraf’s perspective, but all this was tried before, in 1995-96, when the Taliban swept to power the first time. It was an unmitigated disaster and Pakistan found itself losing control over an insurgency that was able to open other lines of resupply and build, through the al Qaeda network, other alliances. This is why Viktor Bout was able to sell aircraft to the Taliban-they were branching out from the ISI-Pakistan networks.
Musharraf, like much of the rest of the world, seems to be willing to bet that U.S. interests and resources cannot cover all the bases out there. Besides, he has the bomb, and no one likes to mess with a nuclear power.
The short-term answer is that the NATO forces will have go it alone along the border. There will be no meaningful Pakistani help, and likely a lot of ISI leaks, blocking moves and clandestine support for the Taliban in the upcoming spring offensive. In the long-term, if the Taliban has a form of state sponsorship and the NATO coalition’s will wilts with casualties during the upcoming offensive, the prospects are increasingly grim.
The question is rapidly becoming whether the forced U.S. marriage with Musharraf has reached is useful end, given his constant and not so private dalliance with the Taliban. I would argue it has, but the divorce is likely to be messy.
It seems that Masharraf’s perception is that India is his main enemy and the Afghan government, the United States and NATO are heavily tilted toward his enemy. So he has reached out to the Taliban on several fronts. In fact, the ties were never really cut. ISI had a role in protecting the Taliban leadership during the U.S.-led occupation, but were not allowed to help al Qaeda, at least not overtly.
One of the more interesting accounts is in the Asia Times, describing a more or less formal alliance with the Taliban while the Taliban separates itself from al Qaeda. Sources in the region say it is clear that some sort of deal has been struck, broader than just the publicly-acknowledged truce in some of the territories.
Given the relatively lame duck status of the Bush administration and the clear understanding that Iran is going to suck up all the remaining policy oxygen, Musharraf can host VP Cheney, promise whatever needs to be promised and be relatively sure he will not be held accountable in a meaningful way. The arrest of Mullah Obaidullah Akhund may be a bone to throw. He has been captured and freed before. My guess is that, in a few months, the whereabouts of the mullah will be unknown.
Musharraf has his reasons for tolerating or even supporting the Taliban, especially if they can somehow unentangle themselves from al Qaeda’s direct presence. Pakistan can keep Kabul constantly on the defensive, control a friendly border force and lessen India’s influence in the region.
The geopolitics may make sense from Musharraf’s perspective, but all this was tried before, in 1995-96, when the Taliban swept to power the first time. It was an unmitigated disaster and Pakistan found itself losing control over an insurgency that was able to open other lines of resupply and build, through the al Qaeda network, other alliances. This is why Viktor Bout was able to sell aircraft to the Taliban-they were branching out from the ISI-Pakistan networks.
Musharraf, like much of the rest of the world, seems to be willing to bet that U.S. interests and resources cannot cover all the bases out there. Besides, he has the bomb, and no one likes to mess with a nuclear power.
The short-term answer is that the NATO forces will have go it alone along the border. There will be no meaningful Pakistani help, and likely a lot of ISI leaks, blocking moves and clandestine support for the Taliban in the upcoming spring offensive. In the long-term, if the Taliban has a form of state sponsorship and the NATO coalition’s will wilts with casualties during the upcoming offensive, the prospects are increasingly grim.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
IO2 Technology Releases New Heliodisplay Into Expanded Markets by N.
IO2 Technology announced today the release of its newest mid-air display, the Heliodisplay M3, serving new markets world-wide. "The M3 is another step forward in applications that benefit from free-space displays and we are enthusiastic about its capabilities expanding into a wider application base," commented
Chad Dyner, the developer of some of the technology used in the Heliodisplay.
The Heliodisplay M3's screen system is updated from the previous model, now using an improved tri-flow system for increased image stability and uniformity, thereby producing an image noticeably improved from previous models. The M3 also includes advancements such as a much brighter and clearer image, standard high-resolution (1024 x 768 native display resolution), and significantly quieter operation.
These improvements allow the display to begin to offer advantages in markets such as teleconferencing, board room displays, and as an access point for gathering information in hotel and corporate lobbies. The
Heliodisplay M3 is available directly from IO2 for $18,400 USD. IO2 also offers the Heliodisplay M3i, which in addition to all the features of the M3, serves as a computer input device for cursor control in a desktop environment, for a price of $19,400 USD.
Expected customers of the Heliodisplay M3 include television production studios, teleconferencing board rooms, A/V integrators, advertisers, retail stores, automotive showrooms, museums, and even some individuals. "With these improvements, it is now easier to operate and maintain, and this helps this system reach farther into the mainstream," said Jay Fields, operations manager at IO2 Technology. This has been emphasized by Lak Taecha, Managing Director of Imagine Technology: "Our corporate customers
are thrilled with the M3. It's the hottest new thing."
Chad Dyner, the developer of some of the technology used in the Heliodisplay.
The Heliodisplay M3's screen system is updated from the previous model, now using an improved tri-flow system for increased image stability and uniformity, thereby producing an image noticeably improved from previous models. The M3 also includes advancements such as a much brighter and clearer image, standard high-resolution (1024 x 768 native display resolution), and significantly quieter operation.
These improvements allow the display to begin to offer advantages in markets such as teleconferencing, board room displays, and as an access point for gathering information in hotel and corporate lobbies. The
Heliodisplay M3 is available directly from IO2 for $18,400 USD. IO2 also offers the Heliodisplay M3i, which in addition to all the features of the M3, serves as a computer input device for cursor control in a desktop environment, for a price of $19,400 USD.
Expected customers of the Heliodisplay M3 include television production studios, teleconferencing board rooms, A/V integrators, advertisers, retail stores, automotive showrooms, museums, and even some individuals. "With these improvements, it is now easier to operate and maintain, and this helps this system reach farther into the mainstream," said Jay Fields, operations manager at IO2 Technology. This has been emphasized by Lak Taecha, Managing Director of Imagine Technology: "Our corporate customers
are thrilled with the M3. It's the hottest new thing."
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
OpenCongress: Ripping open the doors to Congress with Web 2.0 by B.B.
OpenCongress.org is a new site that Web 2.0's the US government, bringing much-needed transparency and accountability to the closed book that is the US Congress. It is the first project of the new Pariticpatory Politics Foundation (founded by the same young geniuses who gave us the Participatory Culture Foundation and its stunning Democracy Internet TV player). Co-creator David Moore describes it thus:
"One of the problems we were aiming to address is that there is a lack of comprehensive, usable web resources for people and groups writing about bills and issues in Congress. The Library of Congress website, Thomas, doesn't do nearly enough to make Congressional information accessible -- meaning that political bloggers didn't have anywhere helpful to link when discussing Congress, that there wasn't a way for their readers to get the "big picture" behind an issue. The lack of public knowledge about what's really happening in Congress breeds apathy about political change in general."
OpenCongress.org helps close the information gap between political insiders and the public by bringing together official government information from Thomas (by way of GovTrack.us), news articles from Google News, blog posts from Technorati, campaign contribution data from OpenSecrets.org, and more -- to give you the real story behind what's happening in Congress.
"One of the problems we were aiming to address is that there is a lack of comprehensive, usable web resources for people and groups writing about bills and issues in Congress. The Library of Congress website, Thomas, doesn't do nearly enough to make Congressional information accessible -- meaning that political bloggers didn't have anywhere helpful to link when discussing Congress, that there wasn't a way for their readers to get the "big picture" behind an issue. The lack of public knowledge about what's really happening in Congress breeds apathy about political change in general."
OpenCongress.org helps close the information gap between political insiders and the public by bringing together official government information from Thomas (by way of GovTrack.us), news articles from Google News, blog posts from Technorati, campaign contribution data from OpenSecrets.org, and more -- to give you the real story behind what's happening in Congress.
Bird-brained China scientists learn to fly pigeons by R.
Scientists in eastern China say they have succeeded in controlling the flight of pigeons with micro electrodes planted in their brains, state media reported on Tuesday.
Scientists at the Robot Engineering Technology Research Centre at Shandong University of Science and Technology said ther electrodes could command them to fly right or left or up or down, Xinhua news agency said.
"The implants stimulate different areas of the pigeon's brain according to signals sent by the scientists via computer, and force the bird to comply with their commands," Xinhua said.
"It's the first such successful experiment on a pigeon in the world," Xinhua quoted the centre's chief scientist, Su Xuecheng, as saying.
Su and his colleagues, who Xinhua said had had similar success with mice in 2005, were improving the devices used in the experiment and hoped that the technology could be put into practical use in future.
The report did not specify what practical uses the scientists saw for the remote-controlled pigeons.
Scientists at the Robot Engineering Technology Research Centre at Shandong University of Science and Technology said ther electrodes could command them to fly right or left or up or down, Xinhua news agency said.
"The implants stimulate different areas of the pigeon's brain according to signals sent by the scientists via computer, and force the bird to comply with their commands," Xinhua said.
"It's the first such successful experiment on a pigeon in the world," Xinhua quoted the centre's chief scientist, Su Xuecheng, as saying.
Su and his colleagues, who Xinhua said had had similar success with mice in 2005, were improving the devices used in the experiment and hoped that the technology could be put into practical use in future.
The report did not specify what practical uses the scientists saw for the remote-controlled pigeons.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Terascale Superchip to have 128 Cores by Dave White
What's the size of a postage stamp but can crunch numbers as well as a room full of computers? That would be the newest research project from Intel, a terascale supercomputer on one 80-core chip. The supercomputer that used to take up 2,000 square feet now fits on the corner of an average postal envelope.
We heard about this megaprocessor teraflop chip last fall. It's the first step in Intel's strategy to fuse future technology and parallel programming skills to create multicore superchips.
The company envisions a handful of handy applications for such multicore chips, such as using mobile phones to achieve real-time language translation and handhelds to perform real-time video search.
Of course, the word in there from a programming perspective is parallel. Programmers haven't done a whole lot of that lately because they haven't had to. The preponderance of cores in this new superchip, however, will force their hands.
And it's not like 80 is even the top-level chip. NVIDIA has brought to the market a chip with 128 cores, a multiprocessor that plows through millions of graphics operations during the length of an average video game.
It's all part of the same goal: to keep pushing the limits and increasing the capabilities of chips, processors, and programmers. Someday soon, mobile phones, laptops, PDAs, and handhelds will be able to crunch so many calculations in so few blinks of the eye that they will astound even their creators.
We heard about this megaprocessor teraflop chip last fall. It's the first step in Intel's strategy to fuse future technology and parallel programming skills to create multicore superchips.
The company envisions a handful of handy applications for such multicore chips, such as using mobile phones to achieve real-time language translation and handhelds to perform real-time video search.
Of course, the word in there from a programming perspective is parallel. Programmers haven't done a whole lot of that lately because they haven't had to. The preponderance of cores in this new superchip, however, will force their hands.
And it's not like 80 is even the top-level chip. NVIDIA has brought to the market a chip with 128 cores, a multiprocessor that plows through millions of graphics operations during the length of an average video game.
It's all part of the same goal: to keep pushing the limits and increasing the capabilities of chips, processors, and programmers. Someday soon, mobile phones, laptops, PDAs, and handhelds will be able to crunch so many calculations in so few blinks of the eye that they will astound even their creators.
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